Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Achievement in Film Editing
SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE, (aka SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE PART ONE), from left: Gwen Stacy (voice: Hailee Steinfeld), Miles Morales (voice: Shameik Moore), 2023. © Sony Pictures Releasing / © Marvel Entertainment / Courtesy Everett Collection
©Sony Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 20, 2023): It’s a breath of fresh air to see a race where (at the moment) two women are leading the pack in three-hour+ movies.
Jennifer Lame, who has never been nominated despite cutting two best picture nominated movies — “Marriage Story” (2019) and “Manchester by Sea” (2016) — is in the best position yet to land her inaugural mention for Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer.”
Her challenger is Martin Scorsese’s longtime collaborator Thelma Schoonmaker, the most awarded woman in the category’s history with three — “Raging Bull” (1980), “The Aviator” (2004) and “The Departed” (2006). She achieves the Herculean task of putting together the dense and beautifully made “Killers of the Flower Moon.”
If either woman won the race, they would be the first to take the category since Margaret Sixel for “Mad Max: Fury Road” (2016).
And just because your movie has a long runtime doesn’t mean the Academy will automatically check your name off.
That could benefit a movie like Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie,” edited by Emmy winner Nick Houy (HBO’s “The Night Of”), who has worked with the filmmaker on her previous best picture nominated movies — “Lady Bird” and “Little Women.” Sadly, Houy was snubbed for both. Perhaps the third time is the charm?
We’re also aware there’s a big push by studios with animated contenders to get their films recognized in this race, notably GKids’ “The Boy and the Heron” and Sony Pictures’ “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.” The latter could get very close.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Jennifer Lame
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) — Thelma Schoonmaker
- “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Yorgos Mavropsaridis
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Nick Houy
- “American Fiction” (MGM) — Hilda Rasula
Next in Line
- “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) — Kevin Tent
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Michael Andrews
- “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios) — William Goldenberg
- “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Jon Poll
- “The Creator” (20th Century Studios) — Hank Corwin, Joe Walker, Scott Morris
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Origin” (Neon) — Spencer Averick
- “Maestro” (Netflix) — Michelle Tesoro
- “The Zone of Interest” (A24) — Paul Watts
- “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) — Julie Monroe
- “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) — Claire Simpson, Sam Restivo
- “Ferrari” (Neon) — Pietro Scalia
- “Creed III” (MGM) — Tyler Nelson, Jessica Baclesse
- “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures) — Kirk Baxter
- “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — Laurent Sénéchal
- “BlackBerry” (IFC Films) — Curt Lobb
Also In Contention
- “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Victoria Boydell
- “The Iron Claw” (A24) — Matthew Hannam
- “May December” (Netflix) — Affonso Gonçalves
- “The Killer” (Netflix) — Kirk Baxter
- “Rustin” (Netflix) — Andrew Mondshein
- “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.) — Craig Alpert
- “Priscilla” (A24) — Sarah Flack
- “John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate) — Nathan Orloff
- “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate) — Nick Moore, Oona Flaherty
- “Fair Play” (Netflix) — Franklin Peterson
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
- “The Creator” (20th Century Studios) — Hank Corwin, Joe Walker, Scott Morris
- “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios) — Lucy Donaldson
- “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) — Julie Monroe
- “Beau is Afraid” (A24) — Lucian Johnston
- “Dream Scenario” (A24) — Kristoffer Borgli
- “The Iron Claw” (A24) — Matthew Hannam
- “Past Lives” (A24) — Keith Fraase
- “Priscilla” (A24) — Sarah Flack
- “You Hurt My Feelings” (A24) — Alisa Lepselter
- “The Zone of Interest” (A24) — Paul Watts
- “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios) — William Goldenberg
- “Foe” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Peter Sciberras
- “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Victoria Boydell
- “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films) — Yorgos Zafeiris
- “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) — Stephen O’Connell
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) — Thelma Schoonmaker
- “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) — Claire Simpson, Sam Restivo
- “Golda” (Bleecker Street) — Arik Lahav-Leibovich
- “Asteroid City” (Focus Features) — Barney Pilling
- “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) — Kevin Tent
- “The Boy and the Heron” (GKids) — Takeshi Seyama
- “BlackBerry” (IFC Films) — Curt Lobb
- “Monica” (IFC Films) — Paola Freddi
- “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) — Mario Battistel
- “Evil Does Not Exist” (Janus Films) — Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
- “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate) — Nick Moore, Oona Flaherty
- “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate) — Mark Yoshikawa
- “John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate) — Nathan Orloff
- “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios) — Catrin Hedström, Evan Schiff
- “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM) — Tanya M. Swerling
- “Creed III” (MGM) — Tyler Nelson, Jessica Baclesse
- “American Fiction” (MGM) — Hilda Rasula
- “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon) — Laurent Sénéchal
- “Eileen” (Neon) — Nick Emerson
- “Ferrari” (Neon) — Pietro Scalia
- “How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon) — Daniel Garber
- “Origin” (Neon) — Spencer Averick
- “Fair Play” (Netflix) — Franklin Peterson
- “The Killer” (Netflix) — Kirk Baxter
- “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix) — Emma Rose Nardi
- “May December” (Netflix) — Affonso Gonçalves
- “Maestro” (Netflix) — Michelle Tesoro
- “Nyad” (Netflix) — Christopher Tellefsen
- “Rebel Moon” (Netflix) — Dody Dorn
- “Rustin” (Netflix) — Andrew Mondshein
- “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) — Pamela Martin **
- “Elemental” (Pixar) — Stephen Schaffer
- “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures) — Jonathan Alberts
- “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Yorgos Mavropsaridis
- “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures) — Kirk Baxter
- “The Equalizer 3” (Sony Pictures) — Conrad Buff
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Michael Andrews
- “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) — To be announced
- “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Abolfazl Talooni, JoAnne Yarrow
- “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Gesa Jäger
- “M3gan” (Universal Pictures) — Jeff McEvoy
- “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Jennifer Lame
- “She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment) — Sabine Hoffman
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Nick Houy
- “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.) — Craig Alpert
- “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Jon Poll
- “Wonka” (Warner Bros.) — Mark Everson
- “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Wyatt Smith
2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Paul Rogers
** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
