Will These Films Hit the $1 Billion Milestone?

After 17 days of release, Barbie became the second film of 2023, after The Super Mario Bros. Movie, to join the coveted billion-dollar club at the box office. It’s a significant feat as only four other films released in the 2020s have hit the milestone, but now the question is: do any of these highly anticipated upcoming releases have a shot at joining Barbie and the Mario Bros.? It’s possible that Margot Robbie and her team might be the last word on this, but there are a few remaining films on the release calendar (pending any strike-related delays) that could sneak into the club if moviegoers choose to respond.

Likely the best shot at this milestone is something with established IP or a film positioned as a big tentpole that has the potential to perform well on a global scale. Overseas grosses have become more and more important in recent years for our domestic releases because budgets have ballooned considerably for many projects. A film like Fast X carried a reported $340 million, and while its $145.9 million domestic take seems troublesome, things become a bit better once the $558.7 million international gross is factored in. A global haul of $704.7 million will likely not generate a huge profit for Fast X on the theatrical level, but it does help stop some of the bleeding. Global box office, when strong, makes for a better box office headline.

Dune: Part Two Has a Shot at Billion-Dollar Glory

One of the films that has a chance of possibly hitting the billion-dollar club is Dune: Part Two, the highly anticipated follow-up to Denis Villeneuve’s Dune. Released in 2021, Dune suffered a COVID setback in its release pattern when it was shifted off of its December 2020 date to October 2021.

The movie was given a theatrical release, but due to movie theaters being partially shuttered and at limited capacity due to the pandemic, Warner Bros. went with the controversial decision to have a day-and-date release for the film that saw it debuting in theaters and on the HBO Max streaming service at the same time. Audiences were given the option to explore both viewing possibilities, and given the limitations of that release, Dune proved to be successful.

Related: Denis Villeneuve Confirms His Plan For Dune as an Epic Trilogy

Budgeted at a reported $165 million, Dune grossed $402 million worldwide, with $108.3 million coming from the domestic front. Again, most of the gross came from overseas, but it was still viewed as a solid performance, given everything working against it. Dune: Part Two, in a huge advantage, is potentially opening in a fully functional marketplace and will benefit from premium showings on IMAX screens.

Interest in the brand has grown considerably since Dune was released, and the second half of the project is said to be more action-driven than its more cerebral predecessor. This could entice moviegoers even more to flock to the second installment. Adding to its chances is a stacked ensemble cast, including more screen time for Zendaya, who is proving to be quite the presence on an international level. However, this also presents a caveat that could affect any remaining big releases this year.

Unfortunately, due to the SAG strike, Dune: Part Two has been delayed until March 2024. Actors aren’t allowed to promote struck work during the strike as members of SAG-AFTRA, leading to the delay. Studios think it’s key to have their actors available to do press to promote their films, especially major studio releases, because they feel it can only help box office numbers.

Since Dune: Part Two has a pretty massive cast, that means NONE of them would be available to do press to promote the film. Zendaya already saw her tennis drama Challengers pushed to next year for this very reason, and this is now her second release to make the move. IMAX Chief Executive Director Richard Gelfond believed that Dune: Part Two wouldn’t be moving because of his own assurances from the studio, but clearly, things changed.

Despite muted fanfare for the film, The Marvels could also hit the milestone since its predecessor did so back in 2019. The film serves as a sequel to Captain Marvel, which earned a staggering $1.13 billion globally by the end of its run. Some believe this was because the movie was the last release ahead of Avengers: Endgame, which likely boosted interest. However, it’s still an impressive feat for a project featuring a superhero that isn’t well-known among casual moviegoers. The movie is also coming off of the success of Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3, which, while not a billion-dollar earner, still grossed over $845 million worldwide.

Could The Marvels See Billion-Dollar Success?

Working against The Marvels is that the sequel is very tied to the Disney+ shows Ms. Marvel, which emerged as one of the least-watched MCU offerings on the platform, and WandaVision, which was well-received but released back in 2021. Some audiences might feel out of the loop, having not watched those shows since two of the major characters in The Marvels appeared on them.

There is also the unwarranted backlash in some internet circles against Brie Larson, who tends to be a target of trolls simply because she speaks her mind. This is also another movie that could benefit from its cast being able to promote it, but that won’t be the case should the strike still be ongoing when the film is released in November. At the end of the day, the franchise has tasted billion-dollar glory before, but the sequel might not be able to hit the milestone as easily.

Related: Barbie Breezes by Captain Marvel in the Box Office Record Books as Gran Turismo Races Into Theaters

Another comic book movie release could hit the mark, but it also has a few things working against its journey to the club. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, much like The Marvels, is coming off a predecessor that also cleared $1 billion at the box office.

Released during the holiday season of 2018, Aquaman became a DCU hit when it grossed $1.15 billion globally. Reportedly, a lot of this came from a larger-than-expected female response to the film due to the presence of Jason Momoa. When it’s all said and done, Aquaman is the highest-grossing DCU movie to date, which could be a sign of things to come for the sequel.

On the flip side of this, The Lost Kingdom has been shuffled around many times on the release schedule for various reasons, and it may happen again, depending on the length of the strike. There are also reports regarding poor test screenings that have gone public so that could mute fan interest in seeing the movie.

Perhaps the most detrimental to its potential is that this year’s DCU offerings have all bombed at the box office, partly because of audience indifference and confusion due to it being publicly known that DC Studios co-heads James Gunn and Peter Safran plan on rebooting the universe as we know it. Shazam! Fury of the Gods and The Flash both landed with a thud, so it’s possible that the Aquaman sequel could sink along with them and miss the billion-dollar mark.

Considering what the industry was facing due to the pandemic, we should be celebrating that we already have two billion-dollar winners this year. It’s no easy task to hit this mark, and the two that have done it in 2023 already did so because of huge audience interest and solid word of mouth. The remaining big releases of 2023 and 2024 will need both of these factors to come into play if they wish to join the club, and we will have to wait and see if they have what it takes to achieve ultimate box-office glory.