With two weeks to go until the release of “Avatar: The Way of Water,” the box office is set to slide into another dry period with Marvel Studios’ “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” staying No. 1 despite diminishing holdovers, with the blockbuster expected to add $15-16 million in its fourth weekend to bring it to the doorstep of $400 million domestic.
Only a minimal amount of support is coming from Universal’s seasonal action comedy “Violent Night,” which is set to meet projections with an $11.8 million opening weekend after taking $4.8 million from 3,682 theaters on Friday. Starring David Harbour as a surly, beatdown-dealing Santa Claus and produced by David Leitch’s 87North, the R-rated film has a $20 million budget and could turn a modest profit.
Reception for “Violent Night” has been positive with Rotten Tomatoes scores of 70% critics and 89% audience to go with a B+ on CinemaScore. Universal will be banking on the film drawing in younger, mostly male audiences as a Christmas crowd pleaser that can find its own lane in theaters apart from “Avatar 2,” Paramount’s “Babylon” and Universal’s own family offering “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.”
Aside from “Wakanda Forever” and “Violent Night,” no film this weekend is currently estimated to earn more than $5 million. Currently third on the charts is Disney’s bomb “Strange World,” which is dropping 63% from its terrible $12.1 million 3-day Thanksgiving opening to a second weekend total of $4.5 million. With a reported budget of at least $120 million, “Strange World” is struggling to stretch its two-weekend total past $25 million.
Industry estimates project this weekend’s overall total to sink to around $50 million, just below the $52 million earned on the first weekend of December in 2021. The post-Thanksgiving weekend has historically been a slow one for the box office, but anemic opening weekends from Thanksgiving offerings over the past couple of years have worsened the slump.
