Labor Day traditionally signals the end of summer and puts the TV industry into fall mode, focusing on the launch of the new broadcast season. While broadcast is no longer the only — or even the main — game in town, Labor Day has remained that threshold after summer vacations when the TV business kicks into high gear.
This year, with TV development and production at a standstill amid two major Hollywood strikes, by the WGA and SAG-AFTRA, Labor Day is taking on additional significance as a threshold for the writers work stoppage to end in order for the networks to air meaningful seasons of their original live-action scripted series of at least 13 episodes. Crossing it without a deal or significant progress between AMPTP and WGA by October could delay new 2023-24 series’ launch until fall 2024 and put some sophomore shows — even beyond broadcast — in potential danger.
The timing has been on the minds of TV executives, producers and showrunners as we get closer to fall. A potential early September end of the writers strike (and subsequent AMPTP agreement with SAG-AFTRA) would allow returning drama series to premiere by mid-February and new ones by March so they could get standard midseason runs of 13 episodes within the regular broadcast season. (Some well established drama series could conceivably make a February-March premiere date with an early October strike end; comedies traditionally take less time to produce.)
“Today many network dramas would have begun shooting their 4th episode of the fall season,” veteran TV writer-producer and former longtime Law & Order: SVU showrunner Warren Leight wrote on Twitter Aug. 8. “If the strike were somehow to end by Labor Day, and shooting were to begin in early fall, the networks might be able to salvage a 13 episode season. The clock keeps ticking.”
Two days later, the WGA and AMPTP announced that they would resume bargaining after the studios had reached out to ask for a meeting.
Following that Friday sitdown, there is a little more optimism in Hollywood three weeks before the Labor Day weekend, with the guild slated to respond to AMPTP’s counter proposal this week. There are still major issues to resolve as writers are striking to keep their profession sustainable in the streaming age, with the bulk of TV content and viewing migrating away from linear TV, and some still project negotiations going deeper into the fall until a deal is struck.
Ironically, broadcast television, which arguably provides the best living for rank-and-file writers and actors with year-round employment, full-size writers rooms, ability for writers to get on-set producing experience as well as for both writers and actors to get generous residuals, is the most impacted by the strikes, further pushing broadcast live-action scripted series to extension. (With fewer broadcast repeats and declining cable syndication, most network series rely increasingly on streaming for their afterlife, making streaming residuals — a key issue in this year’s guild contract negotiations – important for broadcast writing and acting talent too.)
Save for a handful of leftover shows such as NBC’s Found, The Irrational, Magnum P.I. and fresh episodes of Quantum Leap, the fall 2023 broadcast lineups consist of sports, reality, animation and scripted series that have already aired elsewhere, including Paramount Network’s Yellowstone getting a run on CBS.
When the rest of the live-action broadcast scripted series intended for this coming season will get on the air hinges on when the strikes will end.
For studios to restart TV production, writers need to come back first to get working on scripts, which likely explains why the AMPTP reached out to the WGA first. A SAG-AFTRA agreement would then presumably follow, allowing filming with actors to begin when scripts are ready.
According to industry sources, if starting from scratch with no banked scripts, it will take at least two months after the strike(s) end for an established drama series to start delivering new episodes; for a multi-camera comedy, that time is said to be at least six weeks. These are the most compressed estimates I have heard; in reality, it could take up to an extra month for finished episodes of comedy and drama series to start coming in.
For new series, which need time to find their narrative in the writers room after the pilot or for series with straight-to-series orders that have a couple of scripts written but need to find a cast, it would take even longer. There is also the Thanksgiving and holiday breaks when Hollywood production goes on hiatus for at least three weeks total.
While there is optimism, if the current return to the negotiating table does not progress to get the two sides close to a deal by September and the WGA strike stretches to October, the networks would have to make some difficult decisions, especially on newer scripted series.
Faced with the prospect of only being able to air 6-8 episodes of a new show in midseason before the season ends in late May and factoring in the pricey launch marketing campaigns, networks could opt to keep some new series for fall 2024.
Things could get even dicier for sophomore series, especially those that launched last midseason and only had a couple of months to establish a connection with viewers.
For veteran series with devoted fan following, a longer break between seasons is not ideal but won’t affect viewer turnout beyond the overall continuing erosion of linear ratings. (Linear viewing’s share fell under 50% for the first time ever inJuly.)
Newer shows might have a much harder time keeping the viewers who’d tuned in and liked what they saw as they may move on to other things during a lengthy hiatus after Season 1.
It is not a surprise that series renewed for a second season were hit disproportionally harder by pickup reversals and cancellations after the pandemic shut down production for months, creating big gaps between seasons. While there were contributing other factors too, most of the unrenewed series during Covid were headed to Season 2, including Netflix’s The Society and I’m Not OK With This as well as Showtime’s On Becoming A God In Central Florida and ABC’s Stumptown.
There is concern that, also possibly in a confluence of multiple factors, something similar could happen to current series renewed for Season 2, in broadcast and beyond.
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