'House of the Dragon': Who Actually Wins the Dance of the Dragons

Warning: This article contains SPOILERS for Fire & Blood, and thus, House of the Dragon.House of the Dragon Season 3 brings viewers one step closer to learning how the Dance of the Dragons actually ends. Those familiar with Fire & Blood already know how things shake out for both sides of the Targaryen civil war. However, those watching the HBO series alone are seeing the power dynamics shift from season to season. And they’ll need to wait until House of the Dragon Season 4 to learn who takes the Iron Throne and actually keeps it.

The main contenders continue to be Rhaenyra and Aegon II Targaryen, both of whom face significant challenges ahead. Rhaenyra might be the most powerful House of the Dragon character at present, but the increasing discontent of the nobles and common folk makes that unlikely to last. By contrast, Aegon is stuck outside King’s Landing with fractured forces. The show will reveal which of them prevails, but those feeling impatient can look to George R.R. Martin’s source material for answers. Even with House of the Dragon‘s semi-frequent changes, the outcome of the Dance should be more or less the same on-screen. After all, it impacts what happens in Game of Thrones.

Rhaenyra and Aegon II Targaryen Both Die at the End of the Dance of the Dragons

The End of the Targaryen Civil War Is a Messy Affair

Those rooting specifically for either Rhaenyra or Aegon in House of the Dragon may find themselves disappointed by the end of the Dance. Although both are figureheads for the Black and Green factions of the war, they both perish before it’s through. Rhaenyra dies first, after losing control of King’s Landing and being forced to flee a rioting populace. That should happen early in Season 4, and the riots will force her back to Dragonstone without Syrax or on-hand military support.

In Fire & Blood, Aegon quietly retakes Dragonstone before Rhaenyra’s return, and he captures her upon her arrival. As Joffrey reveals in Game of Thrones Season 3, Aegon has his half-sister killed by his dragon. Sunfyre burns and eats Rhaenyra, a brutal conclusion to her journey — but not truly the end of the Targaryen civil war.

Even with Rhaenyra out of the equation, Aegon’s return as king is also short-lived. He makes his way back to King’s Landing, but Rhaenyra’s forces continue their fight. When her armies march on the city, the Greens are without proper defenses. Aegon II refuses to back down, despite his advisors urging him to do so. He’s eventually poisoned by them, marking a messy end for the Greens as well. And this enables someone else to take the Iron Throne, cementing the real winner of the Dance.

Rhaenyra’s Faction Wins ‘House of the Dragon’s Targaryen Civil War

Her Children and Their Descendants Sit Upon the Iron Throne

Emma D'Arcy as Rhaenyra in 'House of the Dragon' Season 3 Episode 3

Following Aegon II’s death, Rhaenyra and Daemon’s eldest son, Aegon III, is crowned as the ruler of the Seven Kingdoms. Unlike his mother’s and Aegon II’s reigns, Aegon the Younger’s rule lasts. He’s on the throne for 26 years, and he’s succeeded by two of his sons. Aegon III’s younger brother, Viserys II, eventually ascends the throne after the childless Baelor I’s reign concludes. And Viserys II’s bloodline produces numerous kings after, right up until Aerys II Targaryen, known throughout Game of Thrones as the Mad King.

In this regard, Rhaenyra wins the Dance of the Dragons. It’s her bloodline that goes on to rule. This ensures her fight throughout House of the Dragon isn’t totally meaningless. The HBO show is really driving that home, as it keeps alluding to events from Game of Thrones — ones Rhaenyra and Daemon will influence, just not as directly as they seem to believe. Their distant descendants will grapple with the enemy to the North and the prophecies surrounding House Targaryen. So, Rhaenyra’s bloodline saves Westeros in addition to ruling it. It’s a win for her family, but it comes at a great cost to House Targaryen more broadly.

‘Game of Thrones’ Shows the Long-Term Fallout of the Dance of the Dragons

The Conflict Is the Beginning of the End for House Targaryen

Jon Snow coming up behind Daenerys Targaryen, who has her hands interlinked, while standing near a cliff in Game of Thrones.

Rhaenyra’s descendants may go on to reign over Westeros, but in the long-term, the Targaryen dynasty as a whole suffers because of the Dance of the Dragons. The conflict leaves only a few dragons alive, something that weakens House Targaryen over time. Fans see their dwindling authority firsthand in A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms. And the lack of dragons allows Robert’s Rebellion to remove them from power altogether right before Game of Thrones.

Only Viserys and Daenerys — and secretly, Jon Snow and Maester Aemon — are still alive when the original series opens. And only one of them is left by the time Game of Thrones comes to a close: Jon. The fact that he’s in exile beyond the Wall makes it very unlikely he’ll revive the great Targaryen dynasty. And so, House Targaryen basically fades to nothing in the aftermath of the Dance. Even Daenerys bringing dragons back isn’t enough to stop that, as only one remains after everything. It’s tragic, and it might have been avoided.

It’s another example of how shortsighted the Game of Thrones franchise’s fights for the Iron Throne tend to be. In the struggle for power, the Blacks and Greens don’t just destroy their family in the immediate sense; they also harm its legacy, even if the extent of that damage is only noticeable generations later.