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Hey Marvel, I Have a Suggestion…

'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' Set For Historic Box Office Debut


Spider-Man: Brand New Day just did the impossible. After the seven-year run of Avengers: Endgame as box office champion, Sony has claimed the throne.

After Sunday actuals, Brand New Day officially opened to $360 million. In the process, Spider-Man proved that he’s bigger than all the other Avengers combined.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Box Office

Getty

Peter Parker has broken Endgame’s longstanding box office record. Once again, Spider-Man claims the title of biggest domestic opening weekend ever.

This news has likely created some tension between co-partners Sony and Disney. Still, I see an opportunity here to take advantage of this turn of events. Hey Marvel, I have some advice…

A ‘Brand New Day’ Indeed

Box Office

(Photo by VALERIE MACON / AFP) (Photo by VALERIE MACON/AFP via Getty Images)

As I just mentioned in Disney Headlines, I targeted three films as the biggest of 2026.

On paper, I liked Toy Story 5, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, and Avengers: Doomsday the best.

Toy Story 5

Photo: Pixar

I’d expected Toy Story 5 to sustain its opening weekend better than it has.

So, that film is officially out of the running, as Brand New Day has already surpassed it, as has The Odyssey

Photo: Pixar

Just to put that statement in perspective, Toy Story 5 had been the number one title of 2026. The latest Sony Spider-Man movie absolutely smoked it in less than a week.

This dramatic difference in scale matters as we spec out the rest of 2026. Frankly, Avengers: Doomsday is in trouble now for reasons you may not have considered.

Avengers Doomsday logo

Photo: Marvel Studios

To explain why, let’s circle back to December 2021 when Spider-Man: No Way Home debuted.

That movie earned a jaw-dropping $1.92 billion worldwide.

Photo: Marvel

As things currently stand, it’s the eighth-highest-grossing film of all time.

At the time of its release, it was sixth, trailing only Avengers, Star Wars, and James Cameron movies.

Paul Rudd and Kathryn Newton in Avengers Domsday trailer

Photo: Marvel Studios

I mention those titles so that you can understand the rarefied air of that level. Even Batman cannot compete with these particular blockbuster films.

Despite No Way Home’s long-term success, its opening weekend earned $260 million. Yes, the latest Spider-Man movie bested its immediate predecessor by $90 million.

Andrew Garfield No Way Home

Photo: Marvel

There’s an arcane explanation for that. Brand New Day debuted in mid-December.

Since people get busy during the holiday season, movies don’t open as well during that month. Avatar, the biggest blockbuster ever, only opened to $77 million. Yes, you’re reading that right.

Marvel’s Problem

Avengers: Doomsday will NOT open to $360 million. I’m not saying it’s 100 percent certain, but…it’s pretty close.

Whenever you set the bar at an actual record, you’re likely, maybe even doomed, to fail. Sorry.

Avengers doomsday

Marvel

To a larger point, the MCU isn’t currently in that place but rather rebuilding.

Avengers: Endgame represented the pinnacle of more than a decade of Marvel storytelling.

Photo: Marvel

Avengers: Doomsday’s marketing campaign is shackled with a flagging brand. I would describe Endgame as the seminal moviegoing event of the 2010s.

We just had one of those the other day with Brand New Day. So, the odds are quite remote we’ll get another one in 2026.

Marvel logo

Photo: Marvel

Unfortunately for Marvel, the Brand New Day comparisons are inevitable.

Everyone knows about the odd situation with Sony, Marvel, and Disney.

Marvel

Image: Marvel.com

Sony owns a perpetual license to produce and distribute Spider-Man content.

The studio can also use other characters from Spider-Man comics.

Tom Holland as Spider-Man, Zendaya in Spider-Man: Brand New Day poster

Photo: Marvel Studios

Based on the past few years, Sony should never try that, though. The stinging memories of Morbius, Madame Web, and Kraven the Hunter linger.

For whatever reason, Sony gets Spider-Man right but all the other characters wrong. Sure, you could argue that the Venom franchise has done well, but that’s it.

Behind the Mask

On the MCU side, 2025 proved to be a frustrating bust for Marvel.

Captain America: Brave New World suffered a production debacle.

Thunderbolts*

Photo: Marvel

Its failures felt preordained, but Thunderbolts* and The Fantastic Four: First Steps were good movies.

They shouldn’t have failed but did. Their struggles speak to how much the MCU is diminished now.

Photo: Marvel

For whatever reason, people don’t hold Madame Web against Spider-Man, though.

Any disappointing MCU film damages the entire brand, though. I’m not saying it’s right or wrong, but that’s Marvel’s reality in 2026.

Marvel’s Solution

Photo: Marvel

WARNING: POTENTIAL CASTING SPOILERS IN THIS SECTION! SKIP IF YOU CARE!

What’s the solution to Doomsday’s predictable opening weekend underachievement?

Spider-Man No Way Home

Photo: Marvel

The studio should ignore the inevitable headlines about its underperformance. Some critics will gleefully point out that Brand New Day beat Doomsday.

I can assure you right now in early August that this will happen in mid-December. Nobody will care that December opening weekends are always deflated in terms of box office.

Avengers Doomsday logo

Photo: Marvel Studios

Nuance isn’t a thing for haters, and you’ve been on the internet long enough to know it.

Even if Doomsday outgrosses Brand New Day, something I kinda doubt right now, it won’t be remembered that way.

Photo: Marvel

For whatever reason, the opening weekend defines the story for blockbusters.

So, Marvel needs to juice its Doomsday opening weekend as much as possible. Here’s the solution. Rumors abound that multiple Spider-Men have filmed scenes for Avengers movies.

Nobody’s quite sure whether Tobey Maguire, Tom Holland, or Andrew Garfield are really in these films.

Photo: Sony

Marvel loves to fake out fans by leaking fake rumors and even on-set cast photos.

We’ve tracked this several times on MarvelBlog. It happens.

Photo: Marvel

Still, I’m inclined to believe the Spider-Men rumors, which brings me to the point.

Marvel, if you have Tom Holland in one of Avengers: Doomsday or Avengers: Secret Wars, market that fact!

Chris Evans as Steve Rogers in Avengers Doomsday trailer

Photo: Marvel Studios

Do not keep this secret the way that Sony hid the Brand New Day surprises. People love Tom Holland. They also like Maguire and Garfield (now), too.

If Spider-Men are making people happy, lean hard into that. Don’t try to sell less popular characters. Fan service exists for a reason. Freakin’ give it to us! You already did with the Dr. Doom casting anyway.

The Reality of Marvel’s Situation

Source: slashfilm.com

In my opinion, Marvel has demonstrated stubbornness with its marketing.

To a certain extent, this behavior was still on display at Comic-Con.

Kevin Feige

Source: Kevin Feige | Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic

Marvel head Kevin Feige has crafted a formula that he knows can work. For whatever reason, he rarely veers from these tactics…and probably for good reason.

Marvel showed some ambition last year with Thunderbolts*. Remember how the film changed its name to The New Avengers after the opening weekend?

(Photo by Disney/Image Group LA via Getty Images)
KEVIN FEIGE

Well, that change, if anything, hurt the movie’s box office legs.

So, this year’s Comic-Con felt formulaic, with several typical announcements.

Kevin Feige, Marvel

Photo by Michael Buckner/Variety/REX/Shutterstock (9727221ce)

We got casting news about Ghost Rider and Black Panther 3. Also, Marvel finally confirmed that Blade is dead. That was about it.

Honestly, nothing from Comic Con sold more tickets for Avengers: Doomsday. Leaking any exciting casting spoilers most assuredly would.

Patrick Stewart as Professor Charles Xavier

Photo: Marvel Studios

Marvel needs to stack the deck here. If it’s got an ace in the hole, Marvel should play it. Now.

Strike while the iron is hot. Make Doomsday feel like a de facto sequel to Brand New Day. Marvel’s leaving money on the table if it doesn’t do that.

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Feature Photo: Marvel 

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