With 32 critics and industry prizes handed out thus far, Oscar nomination voting is now only 10 days away. So where does it all stand at the top of the New Year? The Palm Springs Film Festival kicks off later this week and the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards will soon mark the first televised ceremonies of the season.
Will “The Fabelmans” bring director Steven Spielberg his third statuette? Is it all locked and loaded for Ke Huy Quan? Will the early favorites such as Brendan Fraser go all the way? Who in God’s name will win lead actress and supporting actress? Who are the potential surprise nominees that could surge in these final days? Here are the tallies of awards earned so far.
Best Picture
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – 16
- “The Banshees of Inisherin” – 5
- “She Said” and “Tár” – 2
A24’s multiverse dramedy has been a critical darling with huge wins, including the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (where it tied with “Tár”). This is unsurprising given love for the feature since its debut. Whether the Daniels’ will tickle the fancy of the Academy at large has been the biggest question mark, no matter how passionate Film Twitter makes it sound. But who can blame them for being so bullish on its chances (at least on paper)? The box office hit is the critical leader in five categories and second in the tally in four others. But one fact that Oscar enthusiasts tend to forget — critics don’t vote at the Academy Awards. They provide a roadmap to the destination, but the Oscars can take their own path (and they almost always do).
This is still a wide-open race where “Banshees” could catch fire later down the road or a crowdpleaser like “Top Gun: Maverick” could take full advantage of a preferential ballot system. While “Tár” has only had two wins so far, LAFCA and New York Film Critics are significant. That bodes well for Todd Field, who is hunting for a directing nod.
Keep an eye on “She Said,” which remains a mysterious entity to consider, especially after its surprising AFI Top 10 mention.
Directing
- Daniels (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) – 16
- Todd Field (“Tár”) – 3
- Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”) and Charlotte Wells (“Aftersun”) – 2
The Daniels have performed brilliantly on the awards circuit, picking up many awards to accompany best picture wins. I’ve been on the record about feeling their road to the film winning the Oscars’ top prize is if the Academy feels a duo should be awarded. Is it impossible for the team to get recognized? Absolutely not.
If the Daniels can squeak out a Golden Globe win, making them the first directing duo to win with the 80-year-old group, their chances could greatly increase.
Best Actor
- Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) – 16
- Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) – 9
Farrell and Fraser are the only contenders that have won more than one critics’ prize this season. Bill Nighy’s LAFCA win for lead performance could continue to give him steam heading into the final days of SAG Awards voting. He’s pulled in the key noms for a Globe and Critics Choice.
It’s worth noting that Austin Butler’s turn in “Elvis” and Gabriel LaBelle in “The Fabelmans” have each picked up two breakout awards on the circuit.
Best Actress
- Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) – 15
- Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) – 11
- Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”) – 2
A tight race if ever there was one, with Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh pulling away from the pack. Danielle Deadwyler’s two wins will hopefully keep her on the radar for a while. The only other women to have garnered mentions are Vicky Krieps for “Corsage” (perhaps helping the film’s chances in international feature) and Rosy McEwen for “Blue Jean” (a potential BAFTA favorite).
Supporting Actor
- Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) – 24
- Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) – 2
When Ke Huy Quan won the Gotham Award for best supporting performance, it was the symbolic kickoff to his dominant campaign. He earned it with his turn as the lovable Waymond Wang in the Daniels’ martial arts spectacle. His competition looks to be Brendan Gleeson’s Irish musician in Martin McDonagh’s romp. Only Gleeson and Quan have been named among the precursors being tracked.
Supporting Actress
- Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) – 9
- Janelle Monáe (“Glass Onion”) – 4
- Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) – 3
A surprising turn of events has been Kerry Condon’s fiery turn in “Banshees” being the most awarded on the circuit up to this point, but it makes sense when knowing many of these organizations vote with a preferential ballot system. It’s easy to see Condon’s performance as a consistent no. 2 and no. 3 choices, with everyone having different favorites. The same could be said for Janelle Monáe’s double character duty.
Stephanie Hsu’s team is hoping the young breakout of “Everything Everywhere” can join her co-star Jamie Lee Curtis on the Oscar ballot, especially with the third most wins of the season. Notably, she also has two wins for breakthrough performer, which we don’t count in the tally in this race.
To highlight the unknown trajectory of this category, 11 different actresses have won prizes with Curtis and Keke Palmer (“Nope”), as the only ones to have more than one. Other notables include Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”), Jessie Buckley (“Women Talking”), Hong Chau (“The Whale”), Dolly De Leon (“Triangle of Sadness”) and Nina Hoss (“Tár”).
To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
The top three artisan leaders are also listed below (where applicable).
Note: Not every organization hands out wins for the corresponding category. For “screenplay” only winners, we’ve applied it to the place where it’s competing and have only named the top three if there is more than one win for the film.
Original Screenplay
- “The Banshees of Inisherin” – 15
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – 10
- “Tár” – 3
Adapted Screenplay
- “Women Talking” – 5
- “She Said” – 3
- “Glass Onion” and “The Whale” – 2
Animated Feature
- “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” – 14
- “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” – 8
- “Turning Red” – 3
Production Design
Cinematography
- “Top Gun: Maverick” – 15
- “Nope” – 3
- “Decision to Leave” – 2
Costume Design
Film Editing
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – 10
- “Aftersun” – 3
Makeup and Hairstyling
- No film has won more than one award so far. The only film to have a win still in the running from the announced Oscars shortlist is “All Quiet on the Western Front.”
Sound
- No film has won more than one award so far. None of the 10 movies still in the running from the Oscars shortlist have won an award yet.
Visual Effects
- “Avatar: The Way of Water” – 5
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – 2
Original Score
- “The Batman” and “Babylon” – 5
- “RRR” – 4
- “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” – 2
Original Song
- No film has won more than one award so far. None of the 15 songs still in the running from the Oscars shortlist have won an award yet.
Documentary Feature
- “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” – 8
- “Good Night Oppy” – 7 (not on Oscars shortlist)
- “Fire of Love” – 6
International Feature
- “RRR” – 9 (not submitted by India, but competing in general categories)
- “Decision to Leave” – 7
- “EO” – 3
Debut Director
- Charlotte Wells (“Aftersun”) – 12 (a possible DGA first-time directing frontrunner)
Breakthrough Performer
- Austin Butler (“Elvis”) – 6
- Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) and Gabriel LaBelle (“The Fabelmans”) – 2
Ensemble
- “Glass Onion” – 7
- “Women Talking” – 5
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – 2
2023 ACADEMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
