EXCLUSIVE: Despite all the champagne popping over at Warner Bros and Universal over the bananas box office success of Barbie and Oppenheimer, distribution executives continue to sweat over a possible lengthy SAG-AFTRA strike which is already blowing up the fall release calendar. We told you first last week this was going to happen. All major motion picture studios are assessing release date changes, the longer SAG-AFTRA strike goes on. Many want their stars to promote these films.
Sources tell me that studio executives are hoping to huddle with the National Association of Theatre Owners in an effort to get the word out there to SAG-AFTRA how a lengthy strike could really due to damage, not just to the motion picture business, but to exhibition itself after cinemas ate dirt during Covid. The news comes as No. 1 theater chain AMC is running out of cash. Cinemas can’t go through this again.
We told you that Oscar bait-adult demo titles that squarely hinge on actors’ promotions are the first titles to move off the calendar, which we saw immediately with MGM’s Zendaya, Luca Guadagnino directed Challengers last week heading from Sept 15 to the last weekend of April, and out of its Venice opening night premiere. To date, it’s the only major studio movie to get pulled from a festival.
Focus Features’ Ethan Coen road comedy, Drive-Away Dolls, I hear, won’t be making its way to the fall film festival troika of Venice, TIFF and Telluride. Festivals have expectations for talent to show up, and in the case of Drive-Away Dolls, Coen is a co-writer too and the WGA strike is going on. Focus Features’ The Holdovers and Sony’s Dumb Money can respectively have their directors Alexander Payne and Craig Gillespie do press at TIFF as they aren’t billed as writers on their films.
While Searchlight’s Emma Stone, Yorgos Lanthimos bender, Poor Things, dodged from Sept. 8 to Dec. 8, even with a star-less Venice Film Festival premiere, note the studio has launched big pics at Venice before for awards season and rode that wave to an early December launch, read 2010’s Black Swan.
Separately, Drive-Away Dolls is eyeing a move off its Sept. 22 release date, largely because it’s dated against awards bait title, Dumb Money, which will have the gas of TIFF behind it. New date for the Margaret Qualley, Geraldine Viswanathan, Matt Damon, Pedro Pascal caper is TBD. If you glance at the Comscore calendar, Focus has Oct. 6 on hold for an untitled feature.
Now what’s up with Legendary/Warner Bros.’ Dune: Part Two. We told you it wouldn’t be shocking if the feature moved off its golden Nov. 3 theatrical release date. Denis Villeneuve got stiffed with Warner Media’s theatrical day and date experiment, which prevented the movie from being the Star Wars blockbuster it could have been; the pic still one of the highest grossing movies during the 2021 pandemic at $402M WW and several Oscar wins.
As of today, Dune: Part Two is not moving, but you if Zendaya with 200M social media followers can turn Challengers into a counterprogramming success, then she can certainly help in trumpeting the feature take of the Frank Herbert novel. Of course, it stands to reason that Villeneuve and Legendary are going to wait this sci-fi spectacle out; why would they allow it to become distribution collateral damage again?
I hear Legendary, which is the pilot seat here on the pic’s fate, is in wait and see mode, and has until September before Dune 2‘s next leg of marketing has to go.
If Dune: Part Two moves where does it go? I hear there are three spring options, and you just have to look at the release calendar: March, April or a break in the summer connected to a possible Cannes Film Festival launch. Warners already has the following dates on hold in regards to where Dune: Part Two could go: March 15 where Legendary has their next Godzilla/King Kong movie, April 19 which they have on reserve for an event title, or June 21 which is an untitled open slot for the Burbank lot.
But again, if AMPTP and SAG-AFTRA see eye-to-eye by Labor Day weekend, Dune: Part Two could stay exactly where it is on the calendar.
What about Wonka (Dec 15), Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Dec. 20) and Color Purple (Christmas Day) moving to 2024? Still way too soon to call; but if these tentpoles are vulnerable to changes, so are others.
At this point in time we’re hearing there’s no truth to Apple Original Movies Killers of the Flower Moon (Oct. 6) and Napoleon (Nov. 22) getting qualifying theatrical runs over a wide release, their theatrical distribution handled by Paramount and Sony.
Legendary and Focus Features provided no comment on today’s news.
