Nominations voting is from January 11-16, 2024, with official Oscar nominations announced January 23, 2024. Final voting is February 22-27, 2024. And finally, the 96th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 10 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT. We update predictions through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2024 Oscar picks.
See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 96th Academy Awards here.
The State of the Race
Despite Barbenheimer being the biggest box office story in years, it is hard to tell if both films’ primary Best Supporting Actress contenders are built to last this Oscar season. In “Barbie,” America Ferrera delivers the monologue that functions as the thesis of the imaginative film based on Mattel dolls, but is more just along for the ride elsewhere. Meanwhile, Emily Blunt has never met a supporting role she couldn’t make a meal of, but her role in “Oppenheimer” highlights how, even though her character is the rare wife that gets to live to the end of the film, auteur Christopher Nolan still has a ways to go with how he writes women.
The road seems clear for Lily Gladstone to become the first Native American actress to win an Oscar, even if her “Killers of the Flower Moon” performance could be described as understated. Da’Vine Joy Randolph builds upon the promise of her breakout in “Dolemite Is My Name” with a heartrending performance in Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers,” and in “Saltburn,” Rosamund Pike finally finds a role as deliciously twisted as her Oscar-nominated turn in “Gone Girl,” but neither film feel as epic as Martin Scorsese’s latest work.
The Academy is very aware of Jodie Foster, Julianne Moore, and Penélope Cruz’s talents, so their respective performances in “Nyad,” “May December,” and “Ferrari” are not to be overlooked considering Oscar potential, but the real question in the Best Supporting Actress race is if “The Color Purple” movie musical will match the success of its Steven Spielberg-directed predecessor, leading to nominations for supporting stars Danielle Brooks and Taraji P. Henson.
Contenders are listed in alphabetical order, below. No actor will be deemed a frontrunner until I have seen the film.
Frontrunners:
Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
America Ferrera (“Barbie”)
Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
Rosamund Pike (“Saltburn”)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
Contenders:
Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)
Anne Hathaway (“Eileen”)
Taraji P. Henson (“The Color Purple”)
Vanessa Kirby (“Napoleon”)
Julianne Moore (“May December”)
Viola Davis (“Air”)
Sandra Hüller (“The Zone of Interest”)
Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”)
Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
Long Shots:
Erika Alexander (“American Fiction”)
Jodi Balfour (“Freud’s Last Session”)
Juliette Binoche (“The Taste of Things”)
Patricia Clarkson (“Monica”)
Scarlett Johansson (“Asteroid City”)
Patti LuPone (“Beau Is Afraid”)
Rachel McAdams (“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret”)
Rhea Perlman (“Barbie”)
Florence Pugh (“Oppenheimer”)
Issa Rae (“American Fiction”)
