SATURDAY LATE NIGHT UPDATE: This weekend should really be a come-to-Jesus for both AMPTP and SAG-AFTRA to get their acts together and come to terms because it’s truly a rich one at the box office with studio estimates pegging $217.4M for all films; a record for the last weekend of July that’s also +122% from a year ago and +34% from pre-pandemic 2019 which was led by the second frame of The Lion King.
And this is a holdover weekend at the box office, not some mega opening one for a Marvel film. Granted, the stone in many actors and actresses’ shoes are streamers, however, they’ll be stiffed too at film festivals by the low wattage of their awards season fare if they don’t come to peace ASAP with SAG-AFTRA.
It’s a very bittersweet moment: This is the best we’ve seen the box office in post Covid-times and exhibition is about to get smacked to the ground again, but during what is normally a very rich October, November and December, that is if more films start shifting. Should Legendary/Warner Bros’ Dune: Part Two move out of November, it begins to get really bleak, especially with the first weekend of October now without a potential kickstarter in Kraven the Hunter. Deadline is already hearing about layoffs at exhibitors as they brace for this roller coaster ride.
Thank God for Sony’s Equalizer 3 hanging in there over Labor Day and New Line’s The Nun 2 in the post Labor Day frame to grease the wheels of autumn. We didn’t have that last year after Warners moved the Stephen King feature Salem’s Lot out of the fall (that movie has yet to be dated on the calendar).
Warners was seeing $95M for Barbie this weekend as of this morning, but she looks like she’s coming in more in the $91M-$93M range — which is still perfect and the best second weekend Warner Bros. has ever seen in their lives, anyway it comes in; besting Dark Knight‘s weekend 2 of $75.1M. At the high end, Barbie would land at $351.4M on Sunday. She made $34M last night per industry estimates, +17% from Friday’s $29M. Barbie crossed the $300M tonight in nine days, making it the fastest female-driven pic to do so stateside, beating Beauty and the Beast‘s ten days to that benchmark.
Universal’s Oppenheimer is turning in $18.1M today, +35% over Friday’s $13.1M for a $46M second weekend, -44%, for a running total of $173.6M. That’s a great second weekend for an R-rated film, besting the second frames of such R-rated movies like Logan ($38.1M) and Deadpool 2 ($43.4M). It’s also the best second weekend for an R-rated pic this year besting John Wick: Chapter 4 ($28.3M). It: Chapter One had the best second weekend for an R-rated movie at $60.1M.
Disney’s Haunted Mansion is still eyeing a third place $24M opening after a $7.5M Saturday, -24% from Friday (plus previews) of $9.9M. A mixed bag here: a notable result for family counterprogramming in the wake of Barbenheimer, however, doesn’t move the needle for the brand as it’s so similar to the results of the 2003 version. The pic missing its $30M industry projections has less to do with the SAG-AFTRA strike and more to do Barbenheimer. The pic’s world premiere at Disneyland occurred on the second day of the strike, so no one from the cast was there. However, Disney had the cast availalbe for a shout-out video at the Disney Parks Halfway to Halloween, in addition to Rosario Dawson as a Ghost Host at Magic Kingdom’s Haunted Mansion attraction, and a stunt where talent transformed into Disneyland Cast:
Disney built any noise for their last fling this summer off of the tried-and-true bespoke elements of a family marketing campaign including promo partners (BMW, State Farm, Zwillow, Zatarain’s potato chips), cinema partnerships (Regal New Orleans sweepstakes, AMC early access screenings and giveaways and Cinemark Madame Leota popcorn collectible); and cross promos on cable networks, i.e.
–HGTV broadcast piece on House Haunters, complete with a Special Look and branded tune-ins.
–VH1 and Comedy Central custom broadcast piece on “Scare BnB” featuring film talent.
–Bravo’s “A Housewives Haunting” features Real Housewives conducting a seance.
–Disney Channel’s “Behind the Screams Challenge” included Raven’s Home favorites attempting to make it through the Haunted Mansion at Disneyland Park.
–FX’s “What We Do in the Shadows: Haunted Mansion Edition” branded tune-ins and special Look.
To go along with Haunted Mansion‘s B+ CinemaScore was an 82% from Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak exits and a 60% recommend. Demos were 59% women, 41% men with 18-34 repping 45% of moviegoers, and 25-34 the largest demo at 28%. Diversity demos were 48% Caucasian, 25% Latino and Hispanic, 13% Black and 14% Asian/other. Haunted Mansion played strongest in the South and West. Eighteen percent of the weekend to date is being driven by PLFs with the AMC Disney Springs the top grossing theater in the nation with $76K (plus early shows) through Friday.
‘Talk To Me’
A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection
A24’s Talk to Me is not be ignored bringing depth to the marketplace with a Saturday of $3.7M, a 10% dip from its $4.1M Friday (and previews) for a $10M opening at 2,340 theaters in the No. 6 spot. That’s just $3.5M shy of Hereditary‘s start and higher than the $6.5M Friday-Sunday of Midsommar (which kicked off on a Wednesday). The NY-based studio snapped up the Australian horror pic for high seven figures.
B+ CinemaScore as we previously told you. Critics love this film by Danny and Michael Philippou at 95% certified fresh. The horror movie played strongest in the South Central and West. AMC Burbank is the top theater domestic with $15.6K through Friday. Logline: When a group of friends discover how to conjure spirits using an embalmed hand, they become hooked on the new thrill, until one of them goes too far and unleashes terrifying supernatural forces.
Fourth goes to Angel Studios’ Sound of Freedom at 3,411 locations with a fourth Saturday of $5.1M, up from Friday’s $4M for a $13.8M estimated weekend, -30%, for a running total of $150.3M.
Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One at 3,911 theaters saw a third Saturday of $4.3M, +48% from Friday’s $2.9M for a third weekend of $10.65M, -45%, for a running total of $139.1M. In its first 19 days, the Tom Cruise pic is pacing 7% behind Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, that pic’s current gross at end of weekend 5 at $167M. Realize Indy launched on a Friday and Mission on a Wednesday.
FRIDAY LATE NIGHT UPDATE after midday update: No major seismic changes at the box office here tonight from what we saw this afternoon as Barbie continues to roll in dream house dough with an industry estimated second weekend between $90M-$94M at 4,337 theaters, -44% on the low end, for a running total of $348M-$352M.
It’s not surprising to see a higher figure here on Barbie, given how the Mattel doll has pulled in Marvel like grosses of $20M+ daily during the weekdays. Friday is looking like $28M, -60% from a week ago. That second weekend for Barbie isn’t that far from the $90.4M weekend two of Beauty and the Beast.
Last year at this time, all films totaled $97.9M for the weekend, and off of Barbie alone it’s clear we’re going to be, gosh, possibly north of $160M-$170M. Hopefully, SAG-AFTRA and AMPTP can get their acts together because this box office rally could hit some severe potholes of big pics like Dune: Part Two and Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom move out of the 2023 calendar.
Univeral’s Oppenheimer is seeing a second Friday of $13.5M,-58%, and second weekend of $46M, -44%, for a ten-day total of $173.8M at 3,647 theaters. This 3-hour period drama from the onset has always been ahead of Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk, that pic posting a second weekend of $26.6M, -47%.
Disney’s Haunted Mansion is still seeing $10M for Friday and a 3-day of $25M at 3,740 theaters.
‘Talk to Me’
A24
There’s extra filler here for specialty chains as A24’s Australian horror movie, Talk to Me, is posting $4M (includes $1.24M Thursday previews) for Friday and around $10M for the weekend at 2,340 theaters. Both pics get a B+ CinemaScore.
For a horror film like Talk to Me, that’s solid, while Haunted Mansion’s is only an inch better than the B the Eddie Murphy 2003 movie received. Also, in terms of whether this was a successful reboot or not — likely the latter. Not that it’s not a solid number, but it’s just not that much improvement on the 2003 version with opened to $24.2M (unadjusted for inflation), which legged out to $75.8M. No doubt Barbie took air out of Haunted Mansion‘s sails. We’ll see after Saturday night if matinees push this to $30M, however, no one is seeing that at this point.
Still, nothing to complain about: Studios have product, competition is a good thing. However, the fall/holiday box office could be headed for a cliff after the first major schedule changes by Sony on Friday with Kraven the Hunter and Ghostbusters sequel moving into 2024. The respective points to make here is that it takes stars to launch franchises, and it takes stars to finish movies (i.e. looping) as the SAG-AFTRA strike drags on.
Some distribs might snark at Sony for pushing Gran Turismo to Aug. 25, however, it’s smart because they stay out of the wake of Barbenheimer, and if the movie has any kind of pulse, can buoy August into September with Equalizer 3 and The Nun 2 still hold firming.
Sony keeps the following films in the fall: their TIFF comedy title Dumb Money on Sept. 22, Journey to Bethlehem on Nov. 11, the horror film Thanksgiving on Nov. 17, Apple Original Films’ Napoleon on Nov. 22 and the Glen Powell-Sydney Sweeney romantic comedy Anyone But You on Dec. 15.
Rounding out the box office, there’s Angel Studios’ Sound of Freedom in weekend 4 with a fourth estimated Friday of $4M at 3,411 theaters and 3-day of $13.3M, -33% and running total of $149.7M.
Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One booked at 3,191 theaters is seeing a third Friday of $3M, third weekend of $11.1M in fifth place, -42%, for a running total of $139.6M.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: It’s another sexy $20M+ day for Barbie with Warner Bros reporting $21.2M on Thursday (-8% from Wednesday), ending its first week at $258.3M. The pic should easily become the fastest female demo feature to $300M, beating the 10 days that it took Beauty and the Beast to cross.
Among all Warner Bros Thursdays, Barbie is fourth after The Matrix Reloaded ($37.5M, May 15, 2003), The Hangover Part Two ($31.6M, May 26, 2011) and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince ($22M, July 16, 2009).
Oppenheimer made $10M yesterday, -6% from Wednesday, for a first week of $127.8M. Again, in the face of Barbie, that’s an excellent hold. Barbie is expected to gross around $70M in weekend 2, Oppenheimer is around $35M. We are hearing both pics are looking at the best second weekend presales ever.
The Boxoffice Company, which supplies showtimes to Google, TikTok, IMDB, Bing and Apple is reporting a record-breaking sales for its network of 150 exhibition partners. Barbie and Oppenheimer are collectively generating one of the best holdover weekends ever since Avengers: Endgame. Per the leading theater chains with the Box Office Company, this past week is shaping up to be the best full week of ticket sales since Spider-Man: No Way Home‘s full holiday week of Dec. 17-23, 2021.
Haunted Mansion began previews on Wednesday with Dolby Early Access Screenings at 7 p.m. followed by national previews at 3 p.m. yesterday and made $3.1M. Presales indicated a start of $30M, but the big x-factor is whether Barbie steals family business away, even though the theme park ride movie is gaining 200 PLF screens.
Haunted Mansion’s figure compares to Jungle Cruise ($2.7M from Thursday previews, but was also day-and-date on Disney+) and Maleficent: Mistress of Evil ($2.3M, pre-pandemic).
Early PostTrak is smacking critics’ ‘Rotten Tomatoes grade of 40% rotten with 4 stars and 79% positive last night. Pic skewed female at 57% with 37% under 25.
