Final Oscar voting has now ended for the upcoming 95th ceremony.
Speaking with dozens of voters over the past few days, it’s nearly impossible to gauge the outcomes based on over 9,600 eligible voting members, who all have eclectic tastes and no apparent rhyme or reason for selecting specific films and performances.
There are quite a few categories that are seemingly open for a surprise.
Here are seven questions gathered from observations from discussions with voters and seven anonymous ballots from the AMPAS members before the voting deadline.
It should be noted that these are my observations and trends, not my official final predictions.
How many Oscars are “too much” for “Everything Everywhere All at Once?”
A24’s multiverse comedy has cleaned up with the major guilds, winning DGA, PGA, SAG and WGA, the first film to do so since “Argo” (2012). In addition, no film has lost the best picture after winning all four. However, with 11 nominations, there’s an active debate regarding how many categories it can win, ranging from as low as three to upwards of eight.
In this new era of preferential ballots, international and younger Academy members have shown to exercise a “spread the love” mentality, resisting the urge to go down the line for a movie in every category it’s nominated. This is demonstrated by only two best picture winners since 2009 taking home five or more statuettes. A helpful tool I’ve used is “traveling down the ballot” — reviewing the order in which an Academy member vote in the categories.
The order is: best picture, actor, supporting actor, actress, supporting actress, animated feature, cinematography, costume design, directing, documentary feature, documentary short, film editing, international feature, makeup and hairstyling, original score, original song, production design, animated short, live action short, sound, visual effects, adapted screenplay and original screenplay.
If you are an “Everything Everywhere” stan, as the first anonymous Oscar voter I spoke to this season was, they cast their ballots for best picture, director, and screenplay, along with Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan. However, a supporting actress from a different fim, Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”), received their vote when they arrived in the category, not Jamie Lee Curtis or Stephanie Hsu.
And then there’s the editing race, which seems down to Paul Rogers’ BAFTA, CCA and ACE-winning work on “Everything” and Eddie Hamilton’s high-flying pace of “Top Gun: Maverick.”
Voter #1 (Male, a technical branch member)
Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All at Once (1), All Quiet on the Western Front (2), The Banshees of Inisherin (3), Triangle of Sadness (4), Top Gun: Maverick (5)
Director: The Daniels
Actor: Austin Butler
Actress: Michelle Yeoh
Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett
Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Adapted Screenplay: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Animated Feature: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Production Design: All Quiet on the Western Front
Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front
Costume Design: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Film Editing: Top Gun: Maverick
Makeup and Hairstyling: All Quiet on the Western Front
Sound: All Quiet on the Western Front
Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water
Original Score: The Fabelmans
Original Song: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Documentary Feature: Navalny
International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front
Animated Short: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
Documentary Short: How Do You Measure a Year?
Live Action Short: The Red Suitcase
“The Fabelmans”
©Universal/Courtesy Everett Collection
What categories must you watch throughout the night to tell you what will happen in the best picture race?
Every viable best picture contender could seemingly win one or two categories, which would cause an update in the presumed “Everything Everywhere” sweep. Essentially, if the films below win these categories, it could be cause for concern for A24 and point to a potential upset.
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” — adapted screenplay and production design
- “The Banshees of Inisherin” — supporting actress and original score
- “The Fabelmans” — director and original score
- “Top Gun: Maverick” — visual effects
Voter #2 (Female, Writers Branch)
Best Picture: Women Talking (1), Tár (2), Top Gun: Maverick (3), Everything Everywhere All at Once (4), Elvis (5), The Fabelmans (6), Avatar: The Way of Water (7), The Banshees of Inisherin (8), All Quiet on the Western Front (9), Triangle of Sadness (10)
Director: Todd Field
Actor: Bill Nighy
Actress: Cate Blanchett
Supporting Actor: Brian Tyree Henry
Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon
Original Screenplay: Tár
Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking
Animated Feature: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Production Design: The Fabelmans
Cinematography: Elvis
Costume Design: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Film Editing: Tár
Makeup and Hairstyling: The Batman
Sound: Top Gun: Maverick
Visual Effects: Top Gun: Maverick
Original Score: Babylon
Original Song: RRR
Documentary Feature: Fire of Love
International Feature: Argentina, 1985
Animated Short: My Year of Dicks
Documentary Short: Abstain
Live Action Short: Abstain
Christopher McQuarrie, Tom Cruise, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer on the set of “Top Gun: Maverick.”
Scott Garfield
Could “Top Gun: Maverick” pull off the impossible?
The road to best picture isn’t only resting in the No. 1 and No. 2 votes a movie receives. It also includes which movies are eliminated during the tabulation. To win best picture, a film must secure 50% plus one of the total ballots cast.
While we’ll never know the actual vote tallies, many assume “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “Triangle of Sadness,” and “Women Talking” will be among the first movies eliminated. However, depending on how many first-place votes both “Everything” and “Maverick” secure, “Elvis” or “The Fabelmans” could hold the key to what would be one of the biggest upsets in Oscars history, more significant than “Moonlight” winning over “La La Land” (2016).
Voter #3 (Producers Branch)
Best Picture: Top Gun: Maverick (1), Avatar: The Way of Water (2), Everything Everywhere All at Once (3), Elvis (4), The Banshees of Inisherin (5)
Director: Steven Spielberg
Actor: Colin Farrell
Actress: Cate Blanchett
Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
Supporting Actress: Jamie Lee Curtis
Original Screenplay: The Banshees of Inisherin
Adapted Screenplay: All Quiet on the Western Front
Animated Feature: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Production Design: Babylon
Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front
Costume Design: Babylon
Film Editing: Top Gun: Maverick
Makeup and Hairstyling: The Batman
Sound: All Quiet on the Western Front
Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water
Original Score: All Quiet on the Western Front
Original Song: Top Gun: Maverick
Documentary Feature: Abstain
International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front
Animated Short: Abstain
Documentary Short: Abstain
Live Action Short: Abstain
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Can Colin Farrell become a feckin’ Oscar winner?
With BAFTA and Golden Globes going with Austin Butler (“Elvis”) and Critics Choice and SAG choosing Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”), on the surface, the race has narrowed to one of the two men walking with the statuette. But, interestingly, Farrell has also come up in multiple conversations, with members sharing they voted for the Irish veteran.
A Farrell triumph would be unprecedented, since he has only a Golden Globe for lead actor (comedy) on his side. In the era of the four televised awards ceremonies, no comedy actor has pulled off an Oscar win with the sole help of a Globe. That explains Leonardo DiCaprio’s loss for “The Wolf of Wall Street” (2013). In fact, the last lead actor winner with only a Globe on either genre side was Sean Penn in “Mystic River” (2003).
Voter #4 (Music Branch)
Best Picture: The Fabelmans (1), The Banshees of Inisherin (2), Everything Everywhere All at Once (3), Women Talking (4)
Director: The Daniels
Actor: Brendan Fraser
Actress: Michelle Yeoh
Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch
Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon
Original Screenplay: The Banshees of Inisherin
Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking
Animated Feature: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Production Design: The Fabelmans
Cinematography: Empire of Light
Costume Design: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Film Editing: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Makeup and Hairstyling: The Whale
Sound: The Batman
Visual Effects: Abstain
Original Score: The Banshees of Inisherin
Original Song: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Documentary Feature: A House Made of Splinters
International Feature: Close
Animated Short: Abstain
Documentary Short: Abstain
Live Action Short: Abstain
Bill Nighy in “Living”
Sony Pictures Classics
Could “Living” become the new “Gods and Monsters” and “Sling Blade”?
Adapted screenplay has been whittled down to “All Quiet on the Western Front” or “Women Talking.” Nevertheless, it was surprising to hear how many members were checking the box for Sony Pictures Classics’ “Living,” the remake of Akira Kirosawa’s “Ikiru.” It’s the only nominated movie with an acting nomination (Bill Nighy in best actor).
Pundits have often seen the screenplay prizes as a consolation for a movie that isn’t winning best picture. Look at wins for “Jojo Rabbit” (2019), “BlacKkKlansman” (2018), “Call Me by Your Name” (2017) and “The Imitation Game” (2014). However, films rarely win screenplay without an acting nom unless it’s winning best picture. That was seen with “Gods and Monsters” (1998) winning over “The Thin Red Line” and “Sling Blade” (1996) besting best picture winner “The English Patient,” so there’s precedent for such an upset.
Voter #5 (Male, Producers Branch)
Best Picture: Tár
Director: Todd Field
Actor: Paul Mescal
Actress: Michelle Yeoh
Supporting Actor: Barry Keoghan
Supporting Actress: Stephanie Hsu
Original Screenplay: Tár
Adapted Screenplay: Living
Animated Feature: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Production Design: Elvis
Cinematography: Tár
Costume Design: Babylon
Film Editing: Tár
Makeup and Hairstyling: Abstain
Sound: Abstain
Visual Effects: Abstain
Original Score: Abstain
Original Song: Abstain
Documentary Feature: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
International Feature: EO
Animated Short: Ice Merchants
Documentary Short: Haulout
Live Action Short: The Red Suitcase
Netflix
How many Oscars will “All Quiet on the Western Front” win?
Netflix is bullish on the chances of “All Quiet on the Western Front” coming off seven BAFTA wins. Some are tracking it to walk away with as few as one for best international feature, and up to six including multiple tech categories, with some even suggesting that best picture is on the table. While it’s respected in the circles I’ve come across, for a movie that would be the first to win without any of the four prominent guild mentions would genuinely break the statistical towers of awards punditry.
Some tech categories are very much up for grabs, but winning the Academy’s top prize seems more like a pipe dream.
Voter #6 (Female, Editors Branch)
Best Picture: All Quiet on the Western Front (1), Tár (2), Triangle of Sadness (3)
Director: Ruben Östlund
Actor: Austin Butler
Actress: Cate Blanchett
Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson
Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon
Original Screenplay: Tár
Adapted Screenplay: Living
Animated Feature: The Sea Beast
The race for original score seems down to the two veterans — John Williams and Carter Burwell?
In one corner, you have John Williams, the oldest nominee of a competitive Oscar in history, coming to bat with another Spielberg joint, “The Fablemans.” With five Oscar wins, with the last coming over 30 years ago, there’s a groundswell of support for the composer to take one more home. Of course, he would be the oldest winner in history in any category.
In the other corner, Carter Burwell, the New York-born composer of “The Banshees of Inisherin,” who, despite a stunning filmography, has only landed two previous Oscar noms — “Carol” (2015) and “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (2017). With the snubs of Alexandre Desplat (“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”) and Hildur Guðnadóttir (“Tár” and “Women Talking”), that’s presented a more fluid race where Justin Hurwitz (“Babylon”) won the Globe and Volker Bertelmann (“All Quiet on the Western Front”) won BAFTA. It’s a nail-biter.
Voter #7 (Directors Branch)
Best Picture: Elvis
Director: Steven Spielberg
Actor: Austin Butler
Actress: Michelle Williams
Supporting Actor: Barry Keoghan
Supporting Actress: Jamie Lee Curtis
Original Screenplay: The Fabelmans
Adapted Screenplay: All Quiet on the Western Front
Animated Feature: Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Production Design: All Quiet on the Western Front
Cinematography: Empire of Light
Costume Design: Babylon
Film Editing: Elvis
Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis
Sound: Top Gun: Maverick
Visual Effects: All Quiet on the Western Front
Original Score: All Quiet on the Western Front
Original Song: Abstain
Documentary Feature: Abstain
International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front
Animated Short: Abstain
Documentary Short: Abstain
Live Action Short: Abstain
The final Awards Circuit Column will go up on Wednesday, with the individual categories being updated on Thursday.
Happy Oscars pool!
