Paramount’s “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One” is No. 1 at the box office, though it is flying at a lower altitude than expected with $16.4 million grossed on Friday from 4,327 theaters, as studio estimates project a 5-day opening of $78 million for Tom Cruise’s seventh round as Ethan Hunt.
Prior to the weekend, projections for “Dead Reckoning” stood at $85-95 million, but the film is instead opening in the same vicinity the $77 million 5-day start of “Mission: Impossible — Fallout” in 2018 and slightly below the $82 million 5-day start of “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” two weekends ago
To be fair, comparisons to those films are not exact, as the 5-day start of “Dead Reckoning” stretches from its release this past Wednesday through estimated Sunday grosses, while “Fallout” and “Dial” were Fri.-Tues. totals with “Dial” getting a small Fourth of July boost on Tuesday. But it does show how “Dead Reckoning” is performing more like a “Mission: Impossible” film without any of the boost that was hoped to have come from Cruise’s box office triumph with “Top Gun: Maverick” last year.
On the other hand, “Dead Reckoning” is enjoying much stronger word of mouth than “Indiana Jones 5” with an A on CinemaScore and Rotten Tomatoes scores of 96% critics and 94% audience. “Dead Reckoning” has also been reported to have stronger opening days in key overseas markets like South Korea and Great Britain and is on course for a $240 million global start.
That would be a good start if “Dead Reckoning” was budgeted like past “Mission: Impossible” films, but COVID delays and cost overruns tied to the pandemic pushed the film’s budget close to $300 million, similar to “Dial of Destiny.” The film is now in a position where it will need that strong word of mouth to get it to break even territory with stiff competition from Warner Bros.’ “Barbie” and Universal’s “Oppenheimer” coming next weekend.
Perhaps a factor in the current box office performance of “Dead Reckoning” is the torrid pace being set by Angel Studios’ “Sound of Freedom,” which this weekend has passed A24’s Oscar-winning “Everything Everywhere All at Once” to become the highest grossing independent release in the U.S. since theaters reopened.
More to come…
