Prolific producer Ryan Murphy has delivered Netflix his first no-doubt-about-it certified hit with the oddly titled “Dahmer—Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” generating 701 million hours of self-reported global viewership in its first three weeks. The only problem is that this smashing success comes just as Murphy’s 2018 overall deal with the streamer, worth up to $300 million, is set to expire next year. The timing highlights the mixed results that Netflix has had after inking a wave of producer megadeals several years ago.
In its third week of release, “Dahmer” remains the No. 1 show on the streaming service, and became the second most popular English-language series in Netflix history, with 701.4 million hours viewed (behind only “Stranger Things 4,” which has notched 1.35 billion viewing hours).
Murphy’s envy-inducing contract came one year after Netflix lured ABC broadcast queen Shonda Rhimes for a $100 million deal and then extended it in 2021 (with a hefty raise). The streamer then signed “Black-ish” creator Kenya Barris’ for nine figures, horror maestro Mike Flanagan and “Game of Thrones” creators David Benioff and D.B. Weiss horror maestro Mike Flanagan’s multiyear deal (the latter for $200 million). But despite the high-profile deals, the results thus far have been about as uneven as Netflix’s stock price.
Let’s start with Murphy, whose most successful Netflix original prior to “Dahmer” was 2020’s “Ratched,” which Netflix claimed was viewed by 48 million member accounts within its first four weeks. This fell outside the streamer’s Top 10 as of July 2021 prior to the company adopting hours viewed as its primary metric in October 2021. Murphy’s other Netflix work – miniseries “Hollywood” and “Halston” as well as the two-season series “The Politician” – were met with mixed-to-negative reviews. In an instance where silence speaks volumes, Netflix did not release any viewership information for those three series. (Translation: They likely had nothing to brag about).
Outside of “Dahmer” – which already ranks among Netflix’s top five most in-demand series originals in the U.S. dating back to 2019, according to Parrot Analytics – none of Murphy’s TV series for Netflix rank among the platform’s top 100 most in-demand series in that span. (Parrot Analytics sifts through social media, fan ratings and piracy data to represent audience demand, which reflects the desire and engagement expressed for a title within a given market). And none match the popularity, or endurance, of Murphy’s FX series “American Horror Story” — which remains a popular licensed title for the streamer.
U.S. demand for new Netflix original series premieres in their first 30 days this year averaged 2.86x, which Murphy’s shows consistently beat. But while there are always several metrics of success to consider across viewership, quality, awards and representation, no TV studio is in the business of spending hundreds of millions of dollars on content that struggles to elicit big returns. (Murphy’s feature films for the platform, “The Prom” and “The Boys in the Band,” have fared slightly better — though neither has landed in the streamer’s all-time lists).
Top 10 most in-demand Netflix Originals in the U.S. from Jan. 1, 2019-Sept. 30, 2022
Barris’ projects were similarly disappointing — and the producer wound up exiting his Netflix deal halfway through its run after delivering well-received but niche series “#blackAF” and “Astronomy Club.” His latest executive producer credit for the streamer, Kid Cudi’s animated “Entergalactic,” trended in just one region’s Top 10 in its opening weekend, according to FlixPatrol, while accruing just 2.92x the U.S. demand of the average show over the last week. As one Netflix executive said when reports about a potential split with Barris first started swirling, “The idea of doing more prestige shows that nobody knows are on isn’t interesting.”
Simply put, studios don’t tend to let creators exit contracts early if their content is connecting with viewers and subscribers.
Meanwhile, Benioff and Weiss’ criminally underrated Sandra Oh dramedy “The Chair” (just 5.4x the demand of the average show in the U.S. in its first month of availability) charted on Netflix’s weekly global hours viewed Top 10 for just one week before falling off and won’t be receiving a second season, according to star Sandra Oh. The duo’s movie “Metal Lords,” which bowed on the streamer last April, isn’t even among the Top 10 most in-demand Netflix original films year-to-date.
Top 10 most in-demand Netflix original films in the U.S. year-to-date.
At a time when Netflix’s financial health is under intense scrutiny, these massively expensive deals have largely failed to return the necessary viewership, demand and accolades that would justify their cost.
Yet Netflix hasn’t struck out on every one of its big money swings.
Both seasons of Rhimes’ lustful “Bridgerton” as well as her 2022 limited series “Inventing Anna” rank among Netflix’s most-watched English series of all time in terms of global hours viewed in the first 28 days while drawing audience demand that ranged from “Outstanding” to “Exceptional” in their first four weeks, per Parrot Analytics. Plus, there’s long-running demand for her ABC series “Grey’s Anatomy” (still streaming on Netflix), “Scandal” (removed from Netflix for Hulu in May 2020) and “How to Get Away With Murder” (still streaming on Netflix). Her portfolio of work – originals and licensed titles – have been immensely valuable to the streamer as both acquisition and retention tools.
U.S. audience demand for Grey’s Anatomy, Bridgerton, How To Get Away With Murder, Scandal and Inventing Anna (April 1, 2015-September 29, 2022)
Flanagan has also delivered for Netflix (though we don’t have a reported dollar value on his deal) as his volume of production both before and after his overall deal consistently resonates with audiences. The 2018 horror miniseries “The Haunting of Hill House” (23.09x the demand of the average show in the U.S. in its first month of availability), its 2020 sequel “The Haunting of Bly Manor” (19.08x) and last year’s “Midnight Mass” (12.64x) all generated above average audience demand.
“Midnight Mass” also added 142.2 million global hours viewed in its first month of release, which is roughly on par with recent successes such as “Echoes” and “Peaky Blinders” Season 6 (we don’t have hours viewed data for “Hill House” or “Bly Manor”). These follow Flanagan’s well received streaming films such as 2017’s “Gerald’s Game” (21.33x the demand of the average movie in the U.S. in its first four weeks).
If Rhimes is Netflix’s home run hitter, then Flanagan is the always reliable base hitter.
Thanks to Wall Street’s drastic about-face on the streaming business model and a concerning deceleration of growth, Netflix has lost $200 million in company value in the last 11 months and suffered back-to-back quarterly subscriber losses for the first time as an original content provider.
Five years ago, the company was still something of an interloper in entertainment that wanted (needed?) to boldly announce to Hollywood that it was going to spend whatever it took to attract high-profile talent and develop a library of worthwhile original content. Yet buyer’s remorse may have partially driven a late 2020 hierarchical shakeup that saw new global TV head Bela Bajaria put Netflix’s overall deals business under Brian Wright to wring more value out of all those nine-figure deals (Wright then left the company in June 2021).
The message was clear even if Netflix wasn’t saying it out loud: Paying exorbitant fees to creators wasn’t working. That reality has only grown more stark now that money is tight.
