Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Oct. 3, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actor
Eddie Redmayne and Jessica Chastain in “The Good Nurse” (Netflix)
Courtesy of Netflix
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: After winning an Emmy two years ago for his work on “Succession,” Jeremy Strong is continuing to climb the ranks of the most sought, and respected thespians in the biz. His work in James Gray’s personal drama “Armageddon Time,” has the actor getting two outstanding moments to show off his range. After the film debuted at Cannes and played at Telluride and Toronto, it’s hitting the New York Film Festival next, and his buzz could continue to build. He does face internal competition from his two-time Oscar-winning co-star Anthony Hopkins (“The Silence of the Lambs” and “The Father”).
With Eddie Redmayne confirmed to be campaigning for best supporting actor for Netflix’s “The Good Nurse,” the Oscar-winning actor of “The Theory of Everything” (2014) could be invited back to the dance with an against-type role that has him surprising the viewer.
Anointed a few years ago for best supporting actor for his work in “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood,” could Brad Pitt return to the race for “Babylon?” It’s said that Diego Calva is the lead of the movie and Pitt’s role is rumored to be strong. It’s one of the last films on the calendar that we’ve yet to see.
Many respected actors, with decades in Hollywood, will be seeking recognition. Judd Hirsch, if nominated for Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans,” would be the second oldest nominee in any acting category’s history behind Christopher Plummer, who was 88 when recognized for “All the Money in the World” (2017). If he managed to win, he would be the oldest winner of any category, beating out Hopkins who was 83 at the time of his second win.
He’s not the only industry vet angling for attention with Brendan Gleeson’s work in “The Banshees of Inisherin” getting acclaim, while Ke Huy Quan will hopefully continue to be a packaged deal with his co-star Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Toby Jones’ monologue about the working of a camera in Sam Mendes’ “Empire of Light” will surely get some interest from members while Ben Whishaw will benefit from being the only male actor in an impeccable female ensemble in Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking.”
To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank
Name
Film
Distributor
1
Brendan Gleeson
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
2
Judd Hirsch
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
3
Ke Huy Quan
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
4
Ben Whishaw
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
5
Jeremy Strong
“Armageddon Time”
Focus Features
A deeply personal coming-of-age story about the strength of family and the generational pursuit of the American Dream.
Next in Line
6
Barry Keoghan
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
7
Woody Harrelson
“Triangle of Sadness”
Neon
A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island.
8
Eddie Redmayne
“The Good Nurse”
Netflix
An infamous caregiver is implicated in the deaths of hundreds of hospital patients.
9
Toby Jones
“Empire of Light”
Searchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
10
Brad Pitt
“Babylon”
Paramount Pictures
Set in the ’30s, it follows three friends who witness a murder, become suspects themselves, and uncover one of the most outrageous plots in American history.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11
Ben Foster
“Emancipation”
Apple Original Films
12
Harry Styles
“My Policeman”
Amazon Studios
13
Micheal Ward
“Empire of Light”
Searchlight Pictures
14
Daniel Craig*
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story”
Netflix
15
David Lynch
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
16
Paul Dano
“The Batman”
Warner Bros.
17
Paul Dano*
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
18
Brian Tyree Henry
“Causeway”
A24/Apple Original Films
19
Don Cheadle
“White Noise”
Netflix
20
Viggo Mortensen
“Thirteen Lives”
Amazon Studios/MGM
Also In Contention
21
Anthony Hopkins
“Armageddon Time”
Focus Features
22
Stanley Tucci
“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”
Sony Pictures
23
Edward Norton
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story”
Netflix
24
Tom Hanks
“Elvis”
Warner Bros.
25
Ben Aldridge
“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”
Focus Features
26
Pedro Pascal
“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”
Lionsgate
27
Seth Rogen
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
28
Miles Teller
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Paramount Pictures
29
Manuel Garcia-Rulfo
“A Man Called Otto”
Sony Pictures
30
Glen Powell
“Devotion”
Sony Pictures
Other Awards Possibilities
31
Zen McGrath
“The Son”
Sony Pictures Classics
32
Jalyn Hall
“Till”
Orion/United Artists Releasing
33
Colin Firth
“Empire of Light”
Searchlight Pictures
34
Andre Braugher
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
35
John David Washington
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
36
Rupert Everett
“My Policeman”
Amazon Studios
37
Sean Patrick Thomas
“Till”
Orion/United Artists Releasing
38
Stephen Lang
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
39
John Boyega
“The Woman King”
Sony Pictures
40
Gustav de Waele
“Close”
A24
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
—
Alessandro Nivola
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Chris Rock
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Cliff Curtis
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
—
John David Washington
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Matthias Schoenaerts
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Michael Shannon
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Mike Myers
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Rami Malek
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Robert DeNiro
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Stephen Lang
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
—
Timothy Olyphant
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Gustav de Waele
“Close”
A24
—
Joe Alwyn
“Stars at Noon”
A24
—
Ke Huy Quan
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
—
Brian Tyree Henry
“Causeway”
A24/Apple Original Films
—
Andrew Scott
“Catherine, Called Birdy”
Amazon Studios
—
David Dawson
“My Policeman”
Amazon Studios
—
Joe Alwyn
“Catherine, Called Birdy”
Amazon Studios
—
Peter Lanzani
“Argentina, 1985”
Amazon Studios
—
Colin Farrell
“Thirteen Lives”
Amazon Studios/MGM
—
Joel Edgerton
“Thirteen Lives”
Amazon Studios/MGM
—
Viggo Mortensen
“Thirteen Lives”
Amazon Studios/MGM
—
Grant Harvey
“Emancipation”
Apple Original Films
—
David Denham
“Emancipation”
Apple Original Films
—
Aaron Moten
“Emancipation”
Apple Original Films
—
Ben Foster
“Emancipation”
Apple Original Films
—
Bill Murray
“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”
Apple Original Films
—
Ethan Hawke*
“Raymond & Ray”
Apple Original Films
—
Ewan McGregor*
“Raymond & Ray”
Apple Original Films
—
Russell Crowe
“The Greatest Beer Run Ever”
Apple Original Films
—
Anthony Hopkins
“Armageddon Time”
Focus Features
—
Ben Aldridge
“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”
Focus Features
—
Bill Irwin
“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”
Focus Features
—
Claes Bang
“The Northman”
Focus Features
—
Jaylin Webb
“Armageddon Time”
Focus Features
—
Jeremy Strong
“Armageddon Time”
Focus Features
—
John Glover
“TÁR”
Focus Features
—
Mark Strong
“TÁR”
Focus Features
—
Pedro Pascal
“The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”
Lionsgate
—
Benedict Wong
“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”
Marvel Studios
—
Martin Freeman
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
—
Taika Waititi
“Thor: Love and Thunder”
Marvel Studios
—
Winston Duke*
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
—
Ben Whishaw
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Mark Rylance
“Bones & All”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Michael Stuhlbarg
“Bones & All”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Sean Patrick Thomas
“Till”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
André Holland
“Bones & All”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Scott Speedman
“Crimes of the Future”
Neon
—
Woody Harrelson
“Triangle of Sadness”
Neon
—
Adrien Brody
“Blonde”
Netflix
—
Alessandro Nivola
“White Noise”
Netflix
—
Ali Suliman
“The Swimmers”
Netflix
—
André Benjamin
“White Noise”
Netflix
—
Andrés Almeida
“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.
2022 category winner: Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
