Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actress
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 5, 2023): An Oscar nomination for Da’Vine Joy Randolph would be simply divine.
I was most enamored by Randolph’s heartbreaking turn as a grieving cafeteria manager out of Telluride. Representing the heart and soul of the Alexander Payne dramedy, she has the goods to enter a race that has seemed destined for Lily Gladstone to lose from “Killers of the Flower Moon.”
Jodie Foster is the standout of Netflix’s “Nyad,” which puts her in the race for her fifth career nom. A two-time winner for “The Accused” and “The Silence of the Lambs,” the veteran is a popular figure among her colleagues and could find love for the sports drama.
Rosamund Pike was also a standout from Emerald Fennell’s “Saltburn,” even from those who didn’t “love it.” A previous nominee for “Gone Girl,” she’d be an undoubtedly fun nominee if the Academy feels inspired.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23. The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 10.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
- Penélope Cruz — “Ferrari” (Neon) **
- Emily Blunt — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- America Ferrera — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Next in Line
- Jodie Foster – “Nyad” (Netflix)
- Julianne Moore — “May December” (Netflix) **
- Viola Davis — “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Rosamund Pike — “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Juliette Binoche — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studios) **
- Sandra Hüller — “The Zone of Interest” (A24) **
- Taraji P. Henson – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Claire Foy – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Maya Hawke — “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Rachel McAdams — “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Patricia Clarkson – “Monica” (IFC Films)
- Isabella Rossellini – “La Chimera” (Neon)
- Vanessa Kirby — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) **
- Rhea Perlman – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Also In Contention
- Scarlett Johansson — “Asteroid City” (Focus Features) **
- America Ferrera — “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Annie Gonzalez – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
- Patti LuPone — “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Melissa McCarthy – “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- Hong Chau – “Showing Up” (A24)
- Florence Pugh — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Kathryn Hunter – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Celia Weston — “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Maura Tierney — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Niousha Noor – “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Moon Seung-ah — “Past Lives” (A24)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
- Jodie Comer – “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) **
- Patti LuPone – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Parker Posey – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Amy Ryan – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Lily James – “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Maura Tierney — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Moon Seung-ah – “Past Lives” (A24)
- Dagmara Dominczyk – “Priscilla” (A24)
- Hong Chau – “Showing Up” (A24)
- Julianne Moore – “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)
- Sandra Hüller – “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
- Viola Davis – “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Jurnee Smollet – “The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Allison Oliver — “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Rosamund Pike – “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Annie Murphy – “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
- Janae Collins – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Tantoo Cardinal – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Lily Gladstone – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) **
- Cara Jade Myers – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Vanessa Kirby – “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) **
- Scarlett Johansson – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph – “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
- Patricia Clarkson – “Monica” (IFC Films)
- Juliette Binoche — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio) **
- Annie Gonzalez – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
- Kathy Bates – “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Rachel McAdams – “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- Stephanie Hsu – “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)
- Teyonah Parris – “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)
- Issa Rae – “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Tracee Ellis Ross – “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Tessa Thompson – “Creed III” (MGM)
- Anne Hathaway – “Eileen” (Neon) **
- Isabella Rossellini – “La Chimera” (Neon)
- Jessica Chastain – “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Anne Hathaway – “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Tilda Swinton – “The Killer” (Netflix)
- Myha’la Herrold – “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)
- Maya Hawke – “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Carey Mulligan – “Maestro” (Netflix) **
- Julianne Moore – “May December” (Netflix) **
- Natalie Portman – “May December” (Netflix) **
- Jodie Foster – “Nyad” (Netflix)
- Audra McDonald – “Rustin” (Netflix)
- CCH Pounder – “Rustin” (Netflix)
- Vera Farmiga – “Caste” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Niecy Nash – “Caste” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Connie Nielsen – “Caste” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Marion Cotillard – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Noémie Merlant – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Andrea Riseborough – “Lee” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Lashana Lynch – “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures) **
- Kathryn Hunter – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Margaret Qualley – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Claire Foy – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- America Ferrera – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Shailene Woodley – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Celia Weston – “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Niousha Noor – “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Penélope Cruz – “Ferrari” (Neon)
- Emily Blunt – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Florence Pugh – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- America Ferrera – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Ariana Greenblatt – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Kate McKinnon – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Rhea Perlman – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Issa Rae – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- Adriana Barraza – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Belissa Escobedo – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Susan Sarandon – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Bruna Marquezine – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Halle Bailey – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
- Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- Taraji P. Henson – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
- H.E.R. – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) **
- Olivia Colman – “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
- Melissa McCarthy – “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.
2022 category winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
