Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: July 1, 2023
2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture
Sony Pictures Animation
Weekly Commentary: The fall film festivals are on the horizon under the dark cloud of a writers’ strike and the threat of possible actors joining the fight. Nonetheless, the 2023 halfway mark is complete, and there’s plenty of promise still coming down the pike.
News of the lineups is already beginning to trickle down. So far, we know Venice will have Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” with Emma Stone, the pair’s follow-up to the best picture nominated “The Favourite” (2018). A surrealist science-fiction romance based on an adaptation of Alasdair Grey’s novel, the Searchlight flick has a talented ensemble including Willem Dafoe, Mark Ruffalo, Christopher Abbott and Margaret Qualley. It could be their pony for the season.
Meanwhile, two anticipated biopics will drop at the Lido — Director Michael Mann’s take on Italian racecar driver Enzo Ferrari with Adam Driver titled “Ferrari” has piqued interest. At the same time, Sofia Coppola returns with “Priscilla,” an adaptation of the famous wife of Elvis Presley’s memoir, which stars Cailee Spaeny and Jacob Elordi.
Pablo Larrain’s buzzy Chilean contender “El Conde,” rumored to be a possible across-the-board type of contender, has drummed up excitement, especially as his first film since “Spencer” (2021), which landed a nom for Kristen Stewart.
Coming off two Tony noms and in the middle of an Emmy campaign where she currently stands as the front-runner, Jessica Chastain will stop by Italy with “Memory,” the first English-language project from writer and director Michel Franco. It’s a highly anticipated viewing with an unknown plot and a cast that includes Peter Sarsgaard, Merritt Wever and Josh Charles.
In terms of January through June, we’ve seen promising contenders emerge.
Toronto Film Festival will have dozens of world premieres, including Taika Waititi’s “Next Goal Wins” with Michael Fassbender.
From the first half of 2023, we are already tracking best picture hopefuls such as the Sony Pictures animated “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” A24’s love drama “Past Lives” and Amazon Studios’ highly entertaining “Air.”
There are, of course, the Cannes standouts — Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest,” Todd Haynes’ “May December” and the Palme d’Or winning “Anatomy of a Fall” from Justine Triet — already in the discussion.
Revised charts before the fall festivals are below, with updated overall best picture charts on the Oscar prediction page.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi - “Maestro” (Netflix)
Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Todd Phillips, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg - “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan - “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Quincy Jones, Scott Sanders, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey - “Past Lives” (A24)
David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon - “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie - “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson - “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg - “May December” (Netflix)
Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon - “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson
Next in Line
- “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
- “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- “Air” (Amazon Studios)
- “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
- “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
- “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “The Killer” (Netflix)
- “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
- “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- “Memory” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- “Ferrari” (STX Films)
- “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
- “Challengers” (MGM)
- “El Conde” (Netflix)
- “Priscilla” (A24)
Also In Contention
- “Fair Play” (Netflix)
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- “Foe” (Amazon Studios)
- “Rustin” (Netflix)
- “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
- “Nyad” (Netflix)
- “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Golda” (Bleecker Street)
- “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Shortcomings” (Sony Pictures Classics)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.
2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (producers)
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
