Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best International Feature
Courtesy of Magnolia Pictures
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 14, 2023): All eyes are on France preparing to announce their official country submission later this week, which will come from their five films from the shortlist — “Anatomy of a Fall” (the Palme d’Or winner), “The Taste of Things,” “Sons of Ramses, “The Animal Kingdom” and “On the Wandering Path.”
France hasn’t won an Oscar for best international film since Régis Wargnier’s “Indochine” (1992). The last nomination for France in the international feature film category dates back to Ladj Ly’s police brutality thriller “Les Misérables” (2018). Nonetheless, whatever the entrant will be, they’ll face stiff competition with Germany’s “The Teachers’ Lounge” and Finland’s “Fallen Leaves,” which are already announced as representatives for their native lands.
Still not announced but expected to join the official group is Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest,” which will likely represent the United Kingdom and be one of the many possibilities in this category that could vie for best picture attention (along with “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Taste of Things”), and acting races (such as “Perfect Days” with Kôji Yakusho and “The Teachers’ Lounge” with Leonie Benesch).
There will be more announced over the next few weeks.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Anatomy of a Fall” (France) — dir. Justine Triet **
- “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom) — dir. Jonathan Glazer **
- “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany) — dir. İlker Çatak
- “Perfect Days” (Japan) — dir. Wim Wenders
- “Fallen Leaves” (Finland) — dir. Aki Kaurismäki
Next in Line
- “Io capitano” (Italy) — dir. Matteo Garrone **
- “Society of the Snow” (Spain) — dir. J.A. Bayona **
- “Shayda” (Australia) — dir. Noora Niasari
- “Four Daughters” (Tunisia) — dir. Kaouther Ben Hania
- “The Promised Land” (Denmark) — dir. Nikolaj Arcel **
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “About Dry Grasses” (Turkey) — dir. Nuri Bilge Ceylan
- “The Settlers” (Chile) — dir. Felipe Gálvez Haberle
- “The Monk and the Gun” (Bhutan) — dir. Pawo Choyning Dorji **
- “Tótem” (Mexico) — dir. Lila Avilés **
- “The Taste of Things” (France) — dir. Trần Anh Hùng **
- “La Chimera” (Italy) — dir. Alice Rochwacher **
- “La última obra” (Paraguay) — dir. Héctor Duarte **
- “Paradise Is Burning” (Sweden) — dir. Mika Gustafson **
- “20 Days in Mariupol” (Ukraine) — dir. Mstyslav Chernov **
- “Godland” (Iceland) — dir. Hlynur Pálmason
Also In Contention
- “Have You Seen This Woman?” (Serbia) — dir. Dušan Zorić and Matija Gluščević **
- “Amerikats” (Armenia) — dir. Michael A. Goorjian
- “Concrete Utopia” (South Korea) — dir. Um Tae-hwa
- “A Male” (Colombia) — dir. Fabián Hernández Alvarado
- “Excursion” (Bosnia and Herzegovina) — dir. Una Gunjak
- “Traces” (Croatia) — dir. Dubravka Turic
- “The Visitor” (Bolivia) — dir. Martín Boulocq
- “Pictures of Ghosts” (Brazil) — dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
- “Family Album” (Uruguay) — dir. Guillermo Rocamora
- “Blaga’s Lessons” (Bulgaria) — dir. Stephan Komandarev
All Official Submissions (Alphabetized by Country)**
- “Amerikats” (Armenia)
- “Shayda” (Australia)
- “Omen” (Belgium)
- “The Monk and the Gun” (Bhutan)
- “The Visitor” (Bolivia)
- “Excursion” (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
- “Pictures of Ghosts” (Brazil)
- “Blaga’s Lesson” (Bulgaria)
- “Rojek” (Canada)
- “The Settlers” (Chile)
- “A Male” (Colombia)
- “Traces” (Croatia)
- “Brothers” (Czech Republic)
- “Smoke Sauna Sisterhood” (Estonia)
- “Fallen Leaves” (Finland)
- “Citizen Saint” (Georgia)
- “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
- “Behind the Haystacks” (Greece)
- “Four Souls of Coyote” (Hungary)
- “Godland” (Iceland)
- “Autobiography” (Indonesia)
- “Hanging Gardens” (Iraq)
- “Seven Blessings” (Israel)
- “Perfect Days” (Japan)
- “This is What I Remember” (Kyrgyzstan)
- “My Freedom” (Latvia)
- “Slow” (Lithuania)
- “The Last Ashes” (Luxembourg)
- “Sirin” (Montenegro)
- “The Mother of All Lies” (Morocco)
- “Sweet Dreams” (Netherlands)
- “Housekeeping for Beginners” (North Macedonia)
- “The Erection of Toribio Bardelli” (Peru)
- “Bad Living” (Portugal)
- “Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World” (Romania)
- “Riders” (Slovenia)
- “Concrete Utopia” (South Korea)
- “Thunder” (Switzerland)
- “Marry My Dead Body” (Taiwan)
- “Melody” (Tajikistan)
- “Four Daughters” (Tunisia)
- “About Dry Grasses” (Turkey)
- “Family Album” (Uruguay)
- “The Burdened” (Yemen)
2022 category winner: “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany) — dir. Edward Berger
** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
