Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actor
Searchlight Pictures
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 5, 2023): The best actor race will surely be a bloodbath, with every new contender dropping at a festival, living up to (or exceeding) expectations.
We already know that Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) and Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) will be two strong bets.
Telluride provided Colman Domingo’s transformative turn in “Rustin” alongside Paul Giamatti’s impeccable work in “The Holdovers.”
Andrew Scott broke the hearts of many with what he delivers in “All of Us Strangers” and Austin Butler shows us that his outstanding work in “Elvis” was no fluke. He’s just as mesmerizing in Jeff Nichols’ “The Bikeriders,” but category placement will determine how far he goes.
Barry Keoghan leaves everything on the floor in Emerald Fennell’s “Saltburn,” and coming off his first nom for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” an “afterglow” nom isn’t out of the question.
Venice has also added Adam Driver from “Ferrari,” and Bradley Cooper from “Maestro,” and TIFF is expected to get many excited for Jeffrey Wright in “American Fiction” and Jamie Foxx in “The Burial.”
There aren’t enough spots for all this talent.
Plenty more movies can move in or shift out of the calendar year. It’s still early, but the chess pieces are being implemented, and this category already looks like a bloodbath of competition.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Colman Domingo — “Rustin” (Netflix)
- Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Leonardo DiCaprio — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Paul Giamatti — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
- Jeffrey Wright — “American Fiction” (MGM)
Next in Line
- Andrew Scott — “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Bradley Cooper — “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Anthony Hopkins — “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
- Adam Driver — “Ferrari” (Neon)
- Austin Butler — “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) **
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Barry Keoghan — “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Gael García Bernal — “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Matt Damon — “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Jamie Foxx — “The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
- Kôji Yakusho — “Perfect Days” (Neon)
- David Strathairn — “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Paul Dano — “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Christian Friedel — “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
- Michael Fassbender — “The Killer” (Netflix)
- Jon Bernthal — “Origin” (Neon)
Also In Contention
- Zac Efron — “The Iron Claw” (A24)
- Teo Yoo — “Past Lives” (A24) **
- Joaquin Phoenix — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- Jay Baruchel — “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
- Benoît Magime — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
- Josh O’Connor — “La Chimera” (Neon)
- Jesse Garcia — “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
- Paul Mescal — “Foe” (Amazon Studios)
- Nicolas Cage — “Dream Scenario” (A24)
- Alden Ehrenreich — “Fair Play” (Netflix)
- Kelvin Harrison Jr. — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**
- Kenneth Branagh — “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)
- Austin Butler — “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) **
- Tom Hardy — “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) **
- Joaquin Phoenix — “Beau is Afraid” (A24)
- Nicolas Cage — “Dream Scenario” (A24)
- Zac Efron — “The Iron Claw” (A24) **
- Tee Yoo — “Past Lives” (A24)
- Jacob Elordi — “Priscilla” (A24) **
- Jesse Eisenberg — “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)
- Christian Friedel — “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
- Matt Damon — “Air” (Amazon Studios)
- Jamie Foxx — “The Burial” (Amazon Studios)
- Gael García Bernal — “Cassandro” (Amazon Studios)
- Paul Mescal — “Foe” (Amazon Studios)
- Barry Keoghan — “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
- Riz Ahmed — “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
- Orén Kinlan — “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) **
- Joseph Gordon-Levitt — “Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films) **
- Leonardo DiCaprio — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
- Joaquin Phoenix — “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
- Liev Schreiber — “Across the River and Into the Trees” (Bleecker Street)
- Paul Giamatti — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
- Jay Baruchel — “BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
- Benoît Magime — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
- Jesse Garcia — “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
- Keanu Reeves — “John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)
- Joel Edgerton — “Master Gardener” (Magnolia Pictures)
- Paul Rudd — “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios)
- Bradley Cooper — “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios) **
- Chris Pratt — “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios) **
- Callum Turner — “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)
- Michael B. Jordan — “Creed III” (MGM)
- Jeffrey Wright — “American Fiction” (MGM)
- Jaime Vadell — “El Conde” (Netflix)
- Alden Ehrenreich — “Fair Play” (Netflix)
- Josh O’Connor — “La Chimera” (Neon)
- Jon Bernthal — “Origin” (Neon)
- Kôji Yakusho — “Perfect Days” (Neon)
- Michael Fassbender — “The Killer” (Netflix)
- Bradley Cooper — “Maestro” (Netflix)
- Colman Domingo — “Rustin” (Netflix)
- Robert DeNiro — “Ezra” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Peter Sarsgaard — “Memory” (No U.S Distribution)
- Jon Bernthal – “Origin” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Kingsley Ben-Adir — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
- Tom Cruise — “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
- Andrew Scott — “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Kelvin Harrison Jr. — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Jonathan Majors — “Magazine Dreams” (Searchlight Pictures) **
- Michael Fassbender — “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures) **
- Lakeith Stanfield — “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
- Paul Dano — “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
- Denzel Washington — “The Equalizer 3” (Sony Pictures)
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson — “Kraven the Hunter” (Sony Pictures)
- Shameik Moore — “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
- Anthony Hopkins — “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- David Strathairn — “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Adam Driver — “Ferrari” (Neon)
- Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
- Jason Mamoa — “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (Warner Bros.)
- Ryan Gosling — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) **
- Xolo Maridueña — “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
- Timothée Chalamet — “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
- Harrison Ford — “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Warner Bros.)
- Jonah Hauer-King — “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
2022 category winner: Brendan Fraser, “The Whale” (A24)
** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.
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About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
