PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
* * *
*BEST PICTURE*
Frontrunners
Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
The Fabelmans (Universal) — podcast (Steven Spielberg)
Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century/Disney)
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) — podcast (Jerry Bruckheimer)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)
Elvis (Warner Bros.)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Babylon (Paramount)
Tár (Focus)
Women Talking (UAR)
Major Threats
The Woman King (Sony)
She Said (Universal)
Triangle of Sadness (Neon)
RRR (Variance)
Nope (Universal) — podcast (Jordan Peele)
Till (UAR) — podcast (Barbara Broccoli)
Thirteen Lives (Amazon) — podcast (Ron Howard)
Possibilities
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) — podcast (Kevin Feige)
Armageddon Time (Focus)
Living (Sony Classics)
A Man Called Otto (Sony) — podcast 1 and 2 (Tom Hanks)
Empire of Light (Searchlight)
The Whale (A24)
Aftersun (A24)
*BEST DIRECTOR*
Frontrunners
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) — podcast
James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
Daniel Scheinert & Daniel Kwan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Damien Chazelle (Babylon) — podcast
Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
Major Threats
Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
S. S. Rajamouli (R.R.R.)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Todd Field (Tár)
Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave)
Alejandro González Iñárritu (Bardo) — podcast
Possibilities
Ron Howard (Thirteen Lives) — podcast
Rian Johnson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Jordan Peele (Nope) — podcast
Chinonye Chukwu (Till)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Maria Schrader (She Said)
Charlotte Wells (Aftersun)
*BEST ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Bill Nighy (Living)
Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
Major Threats
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)
Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) — podcast 1 and 2
Diego Calva (Babylon)
Adam Sandler (Hustle) — podcast
Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Possibilities
Hugh Jackman (The Son) — podcast
Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)
Will Smith (Emancipation) — podcast
Song Kang-ho (Broker)
Jonathan Majors (Devotion)
Adam Driver (White Noise) — podcast
Still to See or Under Embargo
Sam Worthington (Avatar: The Way of Water)
*BEST ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Cate Blanchett (Tár) — podcast
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — podcast
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)
Major Threats
Viola Davis (The Woman King)
Margot Robbie (Babylon) — podcast
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Vicky Krieps (Corsage)
Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande) — podcast
Rooney Mara (Women Talking)
Zoe Kazan (She Said)
Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu) — podcast
Possibilities
Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway) — podcast
Jessica Chastain (The Good Nurse) — podcast
Letitia Wright (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Sigourney Weaver (Avatar: The Way of Water)
Léa Seydoux (One Fine Morning)
Emma Corrin (Lady Chatterley’s Lover)
Mia Goth (Pearl)
Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brad Pitt (Babylon)
Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) — podcast
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Major Threats
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Tom Hanks (Elvis) — podcast 1 and 2
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Jeremy Strong (Armageddon Time) — podcast
Possibilities
Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)
Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
Anthony Hopkins (Armageddon Time) — podcast
Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness)
Mark Rylance (Bones and All)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Major Threats
Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) — podcast
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Claire Foy (Women Talking) — podcast
Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
Carey Mulligan (She Said) — podcast
Keke Palmer (Nope)
Possibilities
Nina Hoss (Tár)
Gabrielle Union (The Inspection)
Thuso Mbedu (The Woman King)
Anne Hathaway (Armageddon Time)
Laura Dern (The Son)
Frankie Corio (Aftersun)
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
She Said (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)
Living (Kazuo Ishiguro)
White Noise (Noah Baumbach)
Major Threats
Lady Chatterley’s Lover (David Magee)
The Good Nurse (Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
The Whale (Samuel D. Hunter)
The Son (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
Possibilities
The Wonder (Alice Birch & Sebastián Lelio)
Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron, Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Joe Robert Cole & Ryan Coogler)
Top Gun: Maverick (Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
Tár (Todd Field)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)
Major Threats
Babylon (Damien Chazelle) — podcast
The Woman King (Dana Stevens)
Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)
Armageddon Time (James Gray) — podcast
Till (Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu & Michael Reilly)
Nope (Jordan Peele) — podcast
Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook & Seo-kyeong Jeong)
Possibilities
Cha Cha Real Smooth (Cooper Raiff)
The Inspection (Elegance Bratton)
Elvis (Jeremy Doner, Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell & Craig Pearce)
R.R.R. (S. S. Rajamouli)
Empire of Light (Sam Mendes)
Close (Lukas Dhont & Angelo Tijssens)
Broker (Hirokazu Koreeda)
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Close (Belgium)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Corsage (Austria)
Major Threats
EO (Poland)
Holy Spider (Denmark)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Saint Omer (France)
Bardo (Mexico)
Still to See or Under Embargo
Alcarràs (Spain)
Cinema Sabaya (Israel)
Eternal Spring (Canada)
Girl Picture (Finland)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Klondike (Ukraine)
Narcosis (Netherlands)
Nostalgia (Italy)
Plan 75 (Japan)
War Sailor (Norway)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*
Frontrunners
All That Breathes (HBO)
Fire of Love (Nat Geo/Neon)
Good Night Oppy (Amazon)
Navalny (Warner Bros./CNN)
Retrograde (Nat Geo)
Major Threats (rest of shortlist)
Last Flight Home (MTV)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Neon)
Sr. (Netflix)
Descendant (Netflix)
The Territory (Nat Geo)
Moonage Daydream (Neon)
Bad Axe (IFC)
The Return of Tanya Tucker (Sony Classics)
Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down (Briarcliff/CNN)
Turn Every Page (Sony Classics)
Possibilities
The Janes (HBO)
Freedom on Fire (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (Sony Classics)
Icarus: The Aftermath (still seeking U.S. distribution)
In Her Hands (Netflix)
Civil (Netflix)
Bitterbrush (Magnolia)
Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (Sony Classics)
Still to See or Under Embargo
2nd Chance (Showtime)
Aftershock (Hulu)
Art & Krimes (MTV)
Breaking Bread (Cohen Media Group)
The Corridors of Power (Showtime)
Eternal Spring (self-distributing)
The Exiles (Gravitas)
Hidden Letters (Cargo)
I Didn’t See You There (POV)
If These Walls Could Sing (Disney)
Is That Black Enough for You?!? (Netflix)
Louis Armstrong’s Black and Blues (Apple)
Mickey: The Story of a Mouse (Disney)
Mija (Disney)
Nelly & Nadine (Wolfe)
Nothing Compares (Showtime)
The Pez Outlaw (Gravitas)
The Princess (HBO)
Punch 9 for Harold Washington (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Riotsville, U.S.A. (Magnolia)
Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me (Apple)
Sidney (Apple)
The Voice of Dust and Ash (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Volcano: Rescue From Whakaari (Netflix)
We Are Art: Through the Eyes of Annalaura (Cinedigm)
Wildcat (Amazon)
The Will to See (Cohen Media Group)
*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24)
Turning Red (Pixar)
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Dreamworks)
Wendell & Wild (Netflix)
Major Contenders
Inu-Oh (GKIDS)
Strange World (Disney)
Apollo 10 1/2 (Netflix)
The Bob’s Burgers Movie (20th Century)
The Bad Guys (Universal)
Possibilities
Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal/Illumination)
Eternal Spring (ARTE)
Luck (Apple/Skydance)
My Father’s Dragon (Netflix)
The Sea Beast (Netflix)
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Frontrunners
“Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) — Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems
“Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) — Bloodpop, Lady Gaga & Benjamin Rice — podcast 1 and 2 (Gaga)
“Naatu Naatu” (RRR) — Kala Bhairava, M. M. Keeravani & Rahul Sipligunj
“Nobody Like U” (Turning Red) — Billie Eilish & Finneas — podcast
“New Body Rhumba” (White Noise) — James Murphy
Major Threats (rest of shortlist)
“Carolina” (Where the Crawdads Sing) — Taylor Swift
“Ciao Papa” (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio) — Guillermo del Toro & Roeban Katz
“Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” (Avatar: The Way of Water) — Simon Franglen, Swedish House Mafia & Abel ‘The Weeknd’ Tesfaye
“Do A Little Good” (Spirited) — Benj Pasek & Justin Paul
“This Is a Life” (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — David Byrne, Ryan Lott & Mitski — podcast (Byrne)
“Ready As I’ll Never Be” (The Return of Tanya Tucker) — Brandi Carlile & Tanya Tucker
“Stand Up” (Till) — D’Mile & Jazmine Sullivan
“Time” (Amsterdam) — Aubrey ‘Drake’ Graham, Giveon Evans, Daniel Pemberton & Jahaan Akil Sweet
“Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman) — Diane Warren
“The Songcord” (Avatar: The Way of Water) — Simon Franglen
Possibilities
“(You Made It Feel Like) Home” (Bones and All) — Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
“Love Is Not Love” (Bros) — Billy Eichner & Marc Shaiman
“My Mind and Me” (Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me) — Selena Gomez
“Not Alone” (Devotion) — Joe Jonas
“Good Afternoon” (Spirited) — Benj Pasek, Khiyon Hursey, Sukari Jones, Justin Paul & Mark Sonnenblick
“I Ain’t Worried” (Top Gun: Maverick) — One Republic
“Heartbeat” (Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile) — Shawn Mendes
“At the Automat” (The Automat) — Mel Brooks
“Til You’re Home” (A Man Called Otto) — David Hodges and Rita Wilson
“On My Way” (Marry Me) — Ivy Adara, Leroy Clampitt & Michael Pollack
“Dust & Ash” (The Voice of Dust and Ash) — J. Ralph
“A Tree of Life” (A Tree of Life: The Pittsburgh Synagogue Shooting) — Kate Diaz & Idina Menzel
“A Sky Like I’ve Never Seen” (Wildcat) — Robin Pecknold
“Lift Your Wings” (My Father’s Dragon) — Frank Danna, Jeff Danna, Mychael Danna, Meg LeFauve & Nora Twomey
“We Are Art” (We Are Art: Through the Eyes of Annalaura) — Annalaura di Luggo & Paky Di Maio
“Brasília Bella” (18 1/2) — Luis Guerra, Dan Mirvish & Caro Pierotto
