The dynamics have changed considerably as voting now shifts to the Academy at large.
We will update all our Oscar predictions throughout the season, so keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Oscar race. The nomination round of voting will take place from January 12 to January 17, 2023, with the official Oscar nominations announced on January 24, 2023. The final voting is between March 2 and 7, 2023. Finally, the 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
See our initial thoughts for what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here.
The State of the Race
The Oscar nominees for Best Original Score on Tuesday were led by 90-year-old John Williams, who received his 53rd nomination for Steven Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical “The Fabelmans.” The remainder of the field is composed of two-time “La La Land” winner (score and original song) Justin Hurwitz for “Babylon,” three-time nominee Carter Burwell for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” two-time nominee Volker Bertelmann for “All Quiet on the Western Front,” and newcomers Son Lux for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
The nomination for the experimental rock trio of Rafiq Bhatia, Ryan Lott, and Ian Chang is a rare distinction for a branch that tends to honor scores by single composers. Nominations for Bhatia and Chang preserve some of diversity that was reflected in the Best Original Score shortlist — which also contained two women (Hildur Guðnadóttir and Chanda Dancy) and three Black composers (Dancy, Michael Abels, and Terence Blanchard) — but is otherwise absent from the final roster of nominees. Also shortlisted, but missing the final cut: Ludwig Göransson, who won’t be repeating his “Black Panther” win with “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” and Alexandre Desplat, the two-time winner responsible for the score to “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.”
Hurwitz has been the perceived frontrunner, but the dynamics have changed considerably as voting now shifts to the Academy at large. “EEAAO” has suddenly become the Best Picture favorite and is riding a wave of momentum with its 11 nominations — and Son Lux, which perfectly captures the multiverse vibe with its wildly unconventional score, could ride the wave all the way to an Oscar. But there’s the Williams sentimental factor to consider as well. He could land his sixth Oscar, even after rescinding his plan to retire. “All Quiet” — the wild card — is riding its own wave of momentum, with its nine nominations (including six for crafts, as co-leader with “Elvis”). Bertelmann’s score captures the horror of war in a very fresh and compelling way, and could benefit from an “All Quiet” sweep. Burwell’s score for “Banshees” is haunting and transportive, but it may well get overlooked for being too meditative. Which brings us back to Hurwitz, who could still win after all, despite the divisive response to “Babylon.” His timeless jazz score is the linchpin and was such a vital part of the editing strategy.
“Babylon” marks the fifth collaboration between composer Hurwitz and Damien Chazelle, hurling viewers into the Wild West days of Hollywood in the late ’20s. The composer wanted to give “Babylon” a musical universe of its own: a sound that wouldn’t be so anachronistic as to take anybody out of the ’20s, but also a far cry from the quaint jazz of the period. This consisted of wailing trumpets, screaming saxes, shades of rock ’n’ roll riffs, and modern house beats. Some cues are scored for the band led by Jovan Adepo’s character, Sidney, others for a manic 100-piece orchestra — some scenes are even backed by circus sounds.
For “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Son Lux created a wall-to-wall, genre-bending score — ranging from synthetic beats to Chinese opera, yet coalescing into a cohesive whole. The key was connecting the intimate moments to everything else, along with avoiding a sense of musical monotony for the lengthy fight sequences, including experimenting with Chinese drums and tuned gongs. Lott is also among the nominees for Best Original Song, where the Son Lux/David Byrne/Mitski team-up “This is A Life” competes with Top 40 heavyweights Rihanna and Lady Gaga, perennial nominee Diane Warren, and the global smash “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR.”
For “The Fabelmans,” Williams — the most nominated composer both historically and actively — capitalized on his very personal collaboration with Spielberg (29 movies spanning 50 years). Although the film relies heavily on source music, Williams, knowing the director and his late mother so well, was inspired to compose one of his most beautiful piano-based themes around the strong bond between aspiring director Sammy (Gabriel LaBelle) and his free-spirited mom, Mitzi (Michelle Williams), who was a talented concert pianist. In addition, the composer sprinkled in period nods during the making of Sammy’s films (including piano rag and surf guitar).
As McDonagh’s go-to composer, Burwell brought a fairy tale vibe to “The Banshees of Inisherin,” which is set on a remote island off the west coast of Ireland in 1923, and concerns two lifelong friends, Pádraic (Colin Farrell) and Colm (Brendan Gleeson), who have a sudden breakup with dire consequences. This musical choice plays off of Pádraic’s childlike nature, makes the physical violence more allegorical, and allows the island and its people to be mystical. While the director didn’t want a stereotypically “Irish” score, Burwell embraced low-pitched wind instruments such as bass flute and clarinet that helped convey the windswept island of Inisherin.
As Berger’s go-to composer, Bertelmann provided an almost atonal score that reflects the harrowing emotional state of young soldier Paul (Felix Kammerer) during the final months of World War I, as well as the horrific nature of war itself. Bertelmann uses acute, staccato drumbeats, along with a burst of sinister, spare chords, and built the entire score around its prominent bass. He also uses the vibrating metal reeds of his great grandmother’s refurbished harmonium to great effect.
Below are the nominees ranked in order of likelihood to win:
Son Lux (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
John Williams (“The Fabelmans”)
Volker Bertelmann (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)
Justin Hurwitz (“Babylon”)
Carter Burwell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
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