Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Another lively and grandiose music composition from four-time nominee Danny Elfman and an original song, “New Body Rhumba” from LCD Soundsystem, bookends Noah Baumbach’s “White Noise.” Elfman has been a cinephile favorite in the world of composers, assembling four Oscar noms throughout his career — “Good Will Hunting” (1997), “Men in Black” (1997), “Big Fish” (2003) and “Milk” (2008) — with no statuette yet to be won. An overdue narrative could do wonders for him, similar to Ennio Morricone’s winning run for “The Hateful Eight” (2015), despite the film missing out on key noms.
Could he finally have his shot at the gold?
As confirmed by Focus Features to Variety, Oscar-winner Hildur Guðnadóttir’s (“Joker”) music from Todd Field’s “Tár” does qualify for the upcoming Academy Awards. With a strong bet with her other work “Women Talking” from Sarah Polley, Guðnadóttir could become the first woman ever to receive two nominations in the same year for original score.
For a score to qualify, a film must feature music written specifically for the film by the submitting composer. Some pre-existing music is allowed by a contending film must include a minimum of 60% original music in order to qualify.
Also double-dipping this year is Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross with “Empire of Light” and “Bones and All.” Will they cancel each other out or will the Academy find room for one or both of the works?
Composer John Williams is a legend in every facet of the music world. Aside from winning 25 Grammys and five Oscars, he is undoubtedly the most important musical artist living today. Tapped for Steven Spielberg’s personal semi-autobiographical film “The Fabelmans,” he adds another great composition to his already impressive resume. If nominated, at 90 years old he would surpass costume designer Ann Roth and documentarian Agnes Varda as the oldest nominee, of any competitive Oscar category, in history.
To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank
Film
Composer(s)
Distributor
1
“The Fabelmans”
John Williams
Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
2
“Women Talking”
Hildur Guðnadóttir
MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
3
“White Noise”
Danny Elfman
Netflix
Dramatizes a contemporary American family’s attempts to deal with the mundane conflicts of everyday life while grappling with the universal mysteries of love, death, and the possibility of happiness in an uncertain world.
4
“The Woman King”
Terence Blanchard
Sony Pictures
A historical epic inspired by the true events that happened in The Kingdom of Dahomey, one of the most powerful states of Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries.
5
“Empire of Light”
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
Searchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
Next in Line
6
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
Alexandre Desplat
Netflix
A darker version of the classic children’s fairy tale of a wooden puppet that transforms into a real living boy.
7
“TÁR”
Hildur Guðnadóttir
Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
8
“The Batman”
Michael Giacchino
Warner Bros.
When a sadistic serial killer begins murdering key political figures in Gotham, Batman is forced to investigate the city’s hidden corruption and question his family’s involvement.
9
“Babylon”
Justin Hurwitz
Paramount Pictures
Set in Hollywood during the transition from silent films to talkies, focusing on a mixture of historical & fictional characters.
10
“Good Night Oppy”
Blake Neely
Amazon Studios
The film follows Opportunity, the Mars Exploration Rover affectionately dubbed Oppy by her creators and scientists at NASA. Oppy was originally expected to live for only 90 days but she ultimately explored Mars for nearly 15 years.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11
“Strange World”
Henry Jackman
Walt Disney Pictures
12
“The Son”
Hans Zimmer
Sony Pictures Classics
13
“She Said”
Nicholas Britell
Universal Pictures
14
“Emancipation”
Marcelo Zarvos
Apple Original Films
15
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Ludwig Göransson
Marvel Studios
16
“White Noise”
Danny Elfman
Netflix
17
“RRR”
M.M. Keeravaani
Variance Films
18
“Nope”
Michael Abels
Universal Pictures
19
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Carter Burwell
Searchlight Pictures
20
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
Simon Franglen
20th Century Studios
Also In Contention
21
“Bones & All”
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
MGM/United Artists Releasing
22
“The Whale”
Rob Simonsen
A24
23
“Vengeance”
Finneas O’Connell
Focus Features
24
“Spirited”
Benj Pasek, Justin Paul
Apple Original Films
25
“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”
Bryce Dessner, Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Netflix
26
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Son Lux
A24
27
“My Policeman”
Steven Price
Amazon Studios
28
“Blonde”
Nick Cave, Warren Ellis
Netflix
29
“Turning Red”
Ludwig Göransson
Pixar
30
“The Pale Blue Eye”
Howard Shore
Netflix
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
—
“A Man Called Otto”
To be announced
Sony Pictures
—
“After Yang”
Aska Matsumiya, Ryuichi Sakamoto
A24
—
“Aftersun”
Oliver Coates
A24
—
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
Volker Bertelmann
Netflix
—
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
Soundwalk Collective, Dawn Sutter Madell
Neon
—
“Am I OK?”
St. Vincent, Craig Wedren
HBO Max
—
“Ambulance”
Lorne Balfe
Universal Pictures
—
“Amsterdam”
Daniel Pemberton
20th Century Studios
—
“Argentina, 1985”
Pedro Osuna
Amazon Studios
—
“Armageddon Time”
Christopher Spelman
Focus Features
—
“Art & Krimes by Krimes”
Amanda Jones
MTV Documentary Films
—
“As They Made Us”
Kevin Besignano
Quiver
—
“Athena”
Hugh Martin, Ralph Blane
Netflix
—
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
Simon Franglen
20th Century Studios
—
“Babylon”
Justin Hurwitz
Paramount Pictures
—
“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.
2022 category winner: “Dune” (Warner Bros.) – Hans Zimmer
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
