Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Feb. 23, 2023
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Director
Gabriel LaBelle and Steven Spielberg on the set of “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
Everett Collection
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The DGA Awards, which has historically matched up best with the eventual winner of best director, chose the “Everything Everywhere All at Once” duo of Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert. They’re the third directing team to win in the DGA’s 75-year history (after Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins for “West Side Story” and Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for “No Country for Old Men”). Only eight DGA winners have failed to walk away with the Academy Award in the same season, with the last instance being Sam Mendes (“1917”), who won at DGA but lost to Bong Joon Ho (“Parasite”) at the 2020 Oscars.
The Daniels have gained recognition from various awards groups with their hyper-imaginative tale of a Chinese laundromat owner who sets off to save the multiverse. Additionally, Hollywood has long adopted a “pay your dues” mentality. At 35, Kwan and Scheinert are the youngest pair to win DGA and the seventh-youngest director winners overall. Conservative voters may hesitate to reward the sophomore filmmakers, whose only other movie is the zany dead-body comedy “Swiss Army Man” (2016).
So who’s the alternative?
“All Quiet on the Western Front” is locked and loaded for best international feature, along with some Oscar wins, coming off its impressive BAFTA haul including best director for Edward Berger. However, Berger was not nominated at the Oscars (which would have made this race even more interesting).
One thing you can take away from its haul, particularly Berger’s win for best director, is that it has arguably maintained Steven Spielberg’s Oscar chances for best director following his massive DGA loss. The Golden Globe win for directing will be what accompanies the veteran filmmaker walking into the ceremony. You have to go back to Mel Gibson for “Braveheart” (1995) to find an Oscar-winner for directing that only had a Globe and no other major precursors.
Spielberg’s chances are slightly elevated despite Daniels beating him on his DGA home turf. And there’s no sugarcoating that “Everything Everywhere” received a massive campaign blow at BAFTA. It’d be far too simple to chalk it up to “it’s just the Brits,” as many shared on social media. That creates an opening for Spielberg to capitalize on the industry narrative he’s due for late-career recognition. With “The Fabelmans,” he depicts the origins of his love of celluloid while mapping out the deterioration of his parent’s marriage.
Let’s see what PGA and SAG reward.
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2022.
2022 category winner: Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
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Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
