Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Sept. 15, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Cinematography
Courtesy of San Sebastian Film Festival
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: We’ll see if the science fiction and the action genres can get representation in the race with Claudio Miranda for “Top Gun: Maverick,” Russell Carpenter for “Avatar: The Way of Water” or Larkin Seiple for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” When it comes to “Top Gun,” if the studio wants to get into the best picture category, it needs to stay gain at least four tech noms to stay in the discussion, and cinematography could be its ticket as it looks “assured” recognition for best film editing, sound and visual effects (so far).
In terms of the overdue, Darius Khondji, whose impressive career has only managed to recognize once by the Academy — “Evita” (1996) — has two worthy entries under the guidance of two divisive films, “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” and “Armageddon Time.” Former Oscar-winning veterans are in the mix and expected to make noise with the Academy. Janusz Kaminski’s creation of the childhood of master filmmaker Steven Spielberg in “The Fabelmans” is another stellar effort from the two-time winner — “Schindler’s List” (1993) and “Saving Private Ryan” (1998). He’s also fresh off another nom for “West Side Story” (2021). His competition could come from the second most-nominated DP Roger Deakins who delivers the beauty to Sam Mendes’ “Empire of Light.”
To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank
Film
Director of Photography
Distributor
1
“The Fabelmans”
Janusz Kaminski
Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
2
“Empire of Light”
Roger Deakins
Searchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
3
“Babylon”
Linus Sandgren
Paramount Pictures
Set in Hollywood during the transition from silent films to talkies, focusing on a mixture of historical & fictional characters.
4
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Claudio Miranda
Paramount Pictures
After thirty years, Maverick is still pushing the envelope as a top naval aviator, but must confront ghosts of his past when he leads TOP GUN’s elite graduates on a mission that demands the ultimate sacrifice from those chosen to fly it.
5
“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”
Darius Khondji
Netflix
A renowned Mexican journalist and documentary filmmaker living in Los Angeles, who, after being named the recipient of a prestigious international award, is compelled to return to his native country.
Next in Line
6
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
Russell Carpenter
20th Century Studios
Jake Sully lives with his newfound family formed on the planet of Pandora. Once a familiar threat returns to finish what was previously started, Jake must work with Neytiri and the army of the Na’vi race to protect their planet.
7
“TÁR”
Florian Hoffmeister
Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
8
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Larkin Seiple
A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
9
“Women Talking”
Luc Montpellier
MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
10
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Autumn Durald
Marvel Studios
The nation of Wakanda is pitted against intervening world powers as they mourn the loss of their king T’Challa.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Ben Davis
Searchlight Pictures
12
“The Son”
Ben Smithard
Sony Pictures Classics
13
“The Wonder”
Ari Wegner
Netflix
14
“The Woman King”
Polly Morgan
TriStar Pictures
15
“Thirteen Lives”
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom
Amazon Studios/MGM
16
“The Batman”
Greig Fraser
Warner Bros.
17
“White Noise”
Lol Crawley
Netflix
18
“Nope”
Hoyte van Hoytema
Universal Pictures
19
“Amsterdam”
Emmanuel Lubezki
20th Century Studios
20
“Devotion”
Erik Messerschmidt
Sony Pictures
Also In Contention
21
“Armageddon Time”
Darius Khondji
Focus Features
22
“Elvis”
Mandy Walker
Warner Bros.
23
“Don’t Worry Darling”
Matthew Libatique
Warner Bros
24
“Blonde”
Chayse Irvin
Netflix
25
“Three Thousand Years of Longing”
John Seale
MGM/United Artists Releasing
26
“RRR”
K. K. Senthil Kumar
Variance Films
27
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Steve Yedlin
Netflix
28
“Decision to Leave”
Kim Ji-yong
Mubi
29
“The Pale Blue Eye”
Masanobu Takayanagi
Netflix
30
“Triangle of Sadness”
Fredrik Wenzel
Neon
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
—
“A Man Called Otto”
Matthias Koenigswieser
Sony Pictures
—
“After Yang”
Benjamin Loeb
A24
—
“Aftersun”
Gregory Oke
A24
—
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
James Friend
Netflix
—
“Ambulance”
Roberto De Angelis
Universal Pictures
—
“Amsterdam”
Emmanuel Lubezki
20th Century Studios
—
“Argentina, 1985”
Javier Julia
Amazon Studios
—
“Armageddon Time”
Darius Khondji
Focus Features
—
“As They Made Us”
David Feeney-Mosier
Quiver
—
“Athena”
Matias Boucard
Netflix
—
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
Russell Carpenter
20th Century Studios
—
“Babylon”
Linus Sandgren
Paramount Pictures
—
“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
