Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Oct. 1, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Actress
Viola Davis in “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
Sony
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Danielle Deadwyler cements her place in the best actress race with “Till,” which premiered at the New York Film Festival on Saturday. Playing Mamie Till-Mobley, the breakout star from “The Harder They Fall” (2021) delivers one of the year’s single best performances, by any person, bar none. It will be up to Orion and United Artists Releasing to make sure the film is in front of voters and they are giving Deadwyler (and the film) the consideration it deserves. It would be criminal to let a turn such as this, pass voters by.
Michelle Williams’ work as the piano-playing mother in Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” will be campaigned for the Oscars in best actress, instead of supporting as many pundits had speculated. This throws a huge wrench in both the lead and supporting actress races.
Roles that can go either way between lead and supporting have triumphed before. Olivia Colman won her Oscar over Glenn Close (“The Wife”) and Lady Gaga (“A Star is Born”) for “The Favourite” (2018) while Kate Winslet still managed to top Anne Hathaway (“Rachel Getting Married”) and Meryl Streep (“Doubt”) when she was switched by the Academy from supporting to lead for “The Reader” (2008). Winslet had won the Golden Globe and SAG prizes for supporting prior to the switcharoo. Perhaps Williams can follow in their golden shoes?
Let’s not forget the box-office performance of “The Woman King” that has Oscar-winner Viola Davis (“Fences”) in the thick of it once again, potentially becoming the second woman, to be recognized as a producer and acting in the same year. The first was Frances McDormand for “Nomadland” (2020), winning both categories for best picture and actress. Coincidentally, Davis was among that lineup for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.”
Ana de Armas, on the cover of Variety this week, could overcome the mixed reception for “Blonde” while it’s always foolish to count out someone as noteworthy as Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”) or Margot Robbie (“Babylon”).
To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank
Name
Film
Distributor
1
Michelle Yeoh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
2
Cate Blanchett
“TÁR”
Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
3
Danielle Deadwyler
“Till”
Orion/United Artists Releasing
The story of Emmett Louis Till and the legacy of his mother who pursued justice for her lynched son.
4
Viola Davis
“The Woman King”
Sony Pictures
A historical epic inspired by the true events that happened in The Kingdom of Dahomey, one of the most powerful states of Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries.
5
Michelle Williams
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
Next in Line
6
Olivia Colman
“Empire of Light”
Searchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
7
Zar Amir Ebrahimi
“Holy Spider”
Utopia
A journalist descends into the dark underbelly of the Iranian holy city of Mashhad as she investigates the serial killings of sex workers by the so called “Spider Killer”, who believes he is cleansing the streets of sinners.
8
Ana de Armas
“Blonde”
Netflix
A fictionalized chronicle of the inner life of Marilyn Monroe.
9
Emma Thompson
“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”
Searchlight Pictures
Nancy Stokes, a 55-year-old widow, is yearning for some adventure, human connection and some sex–some good sex.
10
Margot Robbie*
“Babylon”
Paramount Pictures
Set in Hollywood during the transition from silent films to talkies, focusing on a mixture of historical & fictional characters.
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.
2022 category winner: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
