Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Some of the big surprises (and snubs) at the Independent Spirit Awards nominations were a complete shutout of Darren Aronofsky’s “The Whale” and its best actor frontrunner Brendan Fraser. Will that hurt his Oscar chances? Notable names like Jake Gyllenhaal from “Brokeback Mountain” were also snubbed by the organization and went on to receive recognition.
Biopic of Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker.
4
Bill Nighy
“Living”
Sony Pictures Classics
An English-language adaptation of the script of “Ikiru” (1952), set in London in the 1950s.
5
Hugh Jackman
“The Son”
Sony Pictures Classics
Peter as his busy life with new partner Emma and their baby is thrown into disarray when his ex-wife Kate turns up with their teenage son, Nicholas.
Next in Line
6
Will Smith
“Emancipation”
Apple Original Films
A runaway slave forges through the swamps of Louisiana on a tortuous journey to escape plantation owners that nearly killed him.
7
Tom Cruise
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Paramount Pictures
After thirty years, Maverick is still pushing the envelope as a top naval aviator, but must confront ghosts of his past when he leads TOP GUN’s elite graduates on a mission that demands the ultimate sacrifice from those chosen to fly it.
8
Gabriel LaBelle
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
9
Jonathan Majors
“Devotion”
Sony Pictures
A pair of U.S. Navy fighter pilots risk their lives during the Korean War and become some of the Navy’s most celebrated wingmen.
10
Adam Sandler
“Hustle”
Netflix
A basketball scout discovers a phenomenal street ball player while in Spain and sees the prospect as his opportunity to get back into the NBA.
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.
2022 category winner: Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
