As the Hollywood Foreign Press Association continues to march toward a possible comeback, whether the talent and studios participate or not, the mere mention of a Golden Globe nomination will be useful in this wide-open Oscar season.
As the early season precursors begin to trickle in like the Gothams and the Hollywood Music in Media nominations, the more mainstream titles won’t get its first official look until the National Board of Review, New York Film Critics and Los Angeles Critics Associations weigh in. Those may provide some clues to what the now over 200 member organization may choose.
We should expect love for some of the usual suspects such as Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures) and Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking” on the drama side while Martin McDonagh’s “The Banshees of Inisherin” and The Daniels’ “Everything Everywhere All at Once” should properly occupy the comedy side of the house.
If there’s one thing the Globes love, it’s big names, no matter what the reviews. To not consider that either of Harry Styles’ performances in Olivia Wilde’s “Don’t Worry Darling” and Michael Grandage’s “My Policeman” can receive attention is a failure to look through its history. This is the same group that went all-in on Aaron Taylor-Johnson in “Nocturnal Animals” (2016), and even gave unsolicited shocking mentions to Renée Zellweger in “Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason” (2004) and double noms for Johnny Depp for “Alice in Wonderland” and “The Tourist” (2010), both trashed by journalists.
While the box office earnings for “Ticket to Paradise” were impressive enough, the George Clooney and Julia Roberts vehicle was divided among critics. I still wouldn’t count either of the stars out of the discussion in their respective comedy races.
TOP GUN: MAVERICK, (aka TOP GUN 2), from left: Miles Teller, Tom Cruise, 2022. ph: Scott Garfield /© Paramount Pictures / Courtesy Everett Collection
©Paramount/Courtesy Everett Collection
And don’t count out the biggest names in music. Aside from Styles, who pens the original song from “Don’t Worry Darling,” it’ll be hard to resist Rihanna’s “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Taylor Swift’s “Carolina” from “Where the Crawdads Sing” and Lady Gaga’s “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick.”
The group could also embrace a film like Variance Film’s “RRR,” despite not being the official submission for India. The group has chosen alternatives in the past such as “Portrait of a Lady on Fire” (2019) and “Blue is the Warmest Colour” (2013), which were not France’s official submissions during their respective years. Friendly reminder that the film is also eligible for best picture (comedy or musical) after the group amended its rules in 2021 after not allowing “Minari” (2020) and “The Farewell” (2019) to compete in the top races.
Since 1990, there have been 404 Golden Globe statuettes handed out in the film categories. Two hundred nine of them went on to win the Oscar (noteworthy: the HFPA divides its top categories between two genres for drama and comedy/musical). Will that matter this season as they seek redemption, especially with prominent figures in the awards discussion who have spoken out against them before such as Tom Cruise, Viola Davis and Brendan Fraser? We’ll see how it plays out.
The first set of predictions for the film categories are below. The television projections will follow at a later date. The Golden Globes are scheduled to air on Tuesday, Jan. 10, at 8 p.m. ET/ 5 p.m. PT.
LAST UPDATED: Nov. 4, 2022
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
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