Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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UPDATED: May 9, 2023
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series
Gabrielle Dennis, Robin Thede and Skye Townsend from “A Black Lady Sketch Show”
HBO
Weekly Commentary: We’re still in the land of make believe when viewing “A Black Lady Sketch Show,” “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” and “Saturday Night Live” as “the same scripted variety show” — when that’s not the case.
Since the announcement of the rule changes in Dec. 2022, Variety reported HBO’s long-running “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” would move into the scripted variety category (formerly variety sketch series) where it will face off with NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” and its cable counterpart “A Black Lady Sketch Show.”
It had been reported that Apple attempted to move “Schmigadoon!” into this category. However, the TV Academy confirmed to Variety the switch would not be occurring.
The scripted variety category is open to series with at least six episodes. It is defined as shows that are “primarily scripted, or loosely-scripted improv” and “discrete scenes, satire, musical numbers, monologues, comedy stand-ups, sketches, etc.” Last year, Netflix’s “Murderville” was denied entry into the category, then titled variety sketch series.
This category has only yielded two nominees the past two years. Per Emmy rules for 2023, the number of nominees for categories with fewer than 20 submissions are determined as follows: when between eight and 19 submissions are entered, divide the number by four, and round to the nearest whole number.
With currently 11 tracking (not all have been confirmed to be submitted), that would equal 2.75 or to round, three nominees to be named this year. Three more entries will bring the final nomination tally to four.
The TV Academy continues to try to streamline the process for networks and creative artists to understand where their visions best fit for recognition at the Primetime Emmys. However, there are still grey areas, as some shows and formats either overlap or don’t quite fit into the defined box.
We’ll see how it all shakes out on this deadline for submissions.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Inside Amy Schumer” (Paramount+)
- “Ziwe” (Showtime)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “History of the World Part II” (Hulu)
- “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- “Stephen Colbert Presents Tooning Out the News”
- “Pause with Sam Jay” (HBO)
- “Sherman’s Showcase” (IFC)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
- “Documentary Now!” (IFC)
- “Sherman’s Showcase” (IFC)
- “A Black Lady Sketch Show” (HBO)
- “History of the World Part II” (Hulu)
- “Inside Amy Schumer” (Paramount+)
- “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO)
- “Pause with Sam Jay” (HBO)
- “Random Acts of Flyness” (HBO)
- “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
- “Stephen Colbert Presents Tooning Out the News”
- “Ziwe” (Showtime)
** This official list and/or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: “Saturday Night Live” (NBC) — Season 48 — Lorne Michaels, executive producer; Javier Winnik, supervising producer; Lindsay Shookus, Erin Doyle, Tom Broecker and Caroline Maroney, producers; Steve Higgins and Erik Kenward, produced by
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) |
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTING, VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.
