Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
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UPDATED: April 6, 2023
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Dominique Fishback in “Swarm”
Warrick Page/Prime Video
Weekly Commentary: Two years after Elizabeth Olsen landed a deserved nomination for her turn as Wanda Maximoff in Marvel’s “WandaVision,” she’s back in the race again this season with a new, more challenging role.
Olsen, 34, will be a likely contender, even a possible front-runner for her upcoming work as housewife Candy Montgomery in HBO’s limited crime drama “Love & Death.”
Based on a true story, Olsen has been garnering industry respect and adoration fore more than a decade. Under the guidance of 11-time Emmy winning writer David E. Kelley (most recent win was for “Big Little Lies”) and eight-time nominated director Lesli Lanka Glatter (“Mad Men” and “Homeland”), Olsen could have what it takes to break into the race that has only one assurance thus far — Jessica Chastain for Showtime’s “George & Tammy,” who won the SAG Award back in February.
Another potential late-comer is Dominique Fishback in dark thriller, “Swarm” from creators Donald Glover and Janine Nabers, and Prime Video. As Dre, a young woman who grows increasingly obsessed with a pop star, Fishback has been showing the depth of her talent no matter the size of the role. Shown by her Oscar-snubbed performance in “Judas and the Black Messiah,” she turned quite a few heads during her stint on “The Deuce” and her work in last year’s “The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey.” Hopefully, TV Academy members will give the series a proper shake.
At the moment, it seems unlikely we’ll see this category cross the threshold of 60 submissions, which would yield six nominees. That will make this race even more competitive with acclaimed performers from limited series such as FX’s “Fleishman is in Trouble” with Lizzy Caplan and Apple’s “Five Days at Memorial” with Vera Farmiga. In addition, they’ll be some TV movie leading ladies vying for attention including Amber Midthunder in the science fiction sequel “Prey” and possibly even Jennifer Lopez, who does what she always does best in Amazon’s “Shotgun Wedding.”
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- Emily Blunt — “The English” (Prime Video)
- Rachel Weisz — “Dead Ringers” (Prime Video)
- Amber Midthunder — “Prey” (Hulu)
- Lizzy Caplan — “Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
- Vera Farmiga — “Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- Olivia Colman — “Great Expectations” (Hulu)
- Kathryn Hahn — “Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu)
- Jennifer Garner — “The Last Thing He Told Me” (Apple TV+)
- Alicia Vikander — “Irma Vep” (HBO)
- Jennifer Lopez — “Shotgun Wedding” (Prime Video)
- Zoe Saldaña — “From Scratch” (Netflix)
- Bette Midler — “Hocus Pocus 2” (Disney+)
- Keira Knightley — “Boston Strangler” (Hulu)
- Bel Powley — “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
- H.E.R. — “Beauty and the Beast: A 30th Celebration” (ABC)
All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**
** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: Amanda Seyfried, “The Dropout” (Hulu)
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | VARIETY SKETCH, SERIES, SPECIALS |
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTING, VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.
