Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: June 1, 2023
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Documentary of Nonfiction (Series)
Courtesy of Philippe Le Tellier/Paris Match via Getty Images
Weekly Commentary: Netflix’s “Harry & Meghan” and HBO’s “100 Foot Wave” look to have the buzz at the moment. FX’s “Dear Mama: The Saga of Afeni and Tupac Shakur” and CNN’s “The Last Movie Stars” are critical darlings on the circuit and are in the discussion.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
2022 winner — “The Beatles: Get Back” (Disney+)
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Harry & Meghan” (Netflix)
- “100 Foot Wave” (HBO)
- “Dear Mama: The Saga of Afeni and Tupac Shakur” (FX)
- “The Last Movie Stars” (CNN)
- “The U.S. and the Holocaust” (PBS)
Next in Line
- “The 1619 Project” (Hulu)
- “The Reluctant Traveler with Eugene Levy” (Apple TV+)
- “Murdaugh Murders: A Southern Scandal” (Netflix)
- “MH370: The Plant That Disappeared” (Netflix)
- “Prehistoric Planet 2” (Apple TV+)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Gutsy” (Apple TV+)
- “The Secrets of Hillsong” (FX)
- “Secrets of the Elephants” (National Geographic)
- “Mind Over Murder” (HBO)
- “Menudo: Forever Young” (HBO)
- “My Kind of Country” (Apple TV+)
- “Stolen Youth: Inside the Cult at Sarah Lawrence” (Hulu)
- “Patagonia: Life on the Edge of the World” (CNN)
- “2010s” (CNN)
- “Voices Rising: The Music of Wakanda Forever” (Disney+)
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Documentary of Nonfiction (Special)
STILL: A MICHAEL J. FOX MOVIE, Michael J. Fox, 2023. © Apple Original Films /Courtesy Everett Collection
©Apple TV/Courtesy Everett Collection
Weekly Commentary: Michael J. Fox, Pamela Anderson, Judy Blume, Robert Downey Jr, Selena Gomez and Lizzo are in a competitive race for outstanding documentary (special).
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
2022 winner — “George Carlin’s American Dream” (HBO)
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple TV+)
- “Pamela: A Love Story” (Netflix)
- “Judy Blume Forever” (Prime Video)
- “Sr.” (Netflix)
- “Love, Lizzo” (HBO)
Next in Line
- “Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me” (Apple TV+)
- “The Volcano: Rescue From Whakaari” (Netflix)
- “Pretty Baby: Brooke Shields” (Hulu)
- “If These Walls Could Sing” (Disney+)
- “Sidney” (Apple TV+)
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Love to Love You: Donna Summer” (HBO)
- “The Princess” (HBO)
- “Being Mary Tyler Moore” (HBO)
- “Bama Rush” (HBO)
- “The Sound of 007” (Prime Video)
- “The New York Times Presents The Sin Eater: The Crimes of Anthony Pellicano” (FX)
- “Music Box: Jason Isbell: Running With Our Eyes Closed” (HBO)
- “Dionne Warwick: Don’t Make Me Over” (CNN)
- “Untrapped – The Story of Lil Baby” (Prime Video)
- “Hi, I’m Nancy Rubin” (Magnolia)
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special
CNN
Weekly Commentary: CNN could dominate this category with three high-profile contenders — “Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy,” “United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell” and “Eva Longoria: Searching for Mexico.” Will they be able to get all three recognized?
It may be difficult with Showtime’s “Vice” and Netflix’s “Somebody Feed Phil” in the running.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
2022 winner — “Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy” (CNN)
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy” (CNN)
- “United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell” (CNN)
- “My Next Guest with David Letterman and Volodymyr Zelenskyy” (Netflix)
- “Vice” (Showtime)
- “Somebody Feed Phil” (Netflix)
Next in Line
- “Eva Longoria: Searching for Mexico” (CNN)
- “The Light We Carry: Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey” (Netflix)
- “SmartLess: On the Road” (HBO)
- “Rainn Wilson and the Geography of Bliss” (Peacock)
- “Great White Open Ocean” (Discovery)
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Exceptional Merit
Descendant
Courtesy of Participant/Netflix
Weekly Commentary: A juried category but this is where the most buzzy films bubble to the top. The former Oscar contenders such as Netflix’s “Descendant,” HBO’s “Moonage Daydream” and Paramount’s “Last Flight Home” are beloved.
National Geographic’s “Wild Life” from “Free Solo” directors Jimmy Chin and Chai Vasarhelyi is a wonderful tribute to conservationists Kris and Doug Tompkins.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Descendant” (Netflix)
- “Moonage Daydream” (HBO)
- “Wild Life” (National Geographic)
- “Last Flight Home” (Paramount+)
- “Katrina Babies” (HBO)
Next in Line
- “Aftershock” (Hulu)
- “Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down” (CNN)
- “American Pain” (CNN/HBO)
- “Stutz” (Netflix)
- “Afghan Dreamers” (Paramount+)
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.
