Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: June 5, 2023
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Nick Offerman and Murray Bartlett in “The Last of Us” (HBO)
HBO
Weekly Commentary: Could “Succession” dominate the director drama category again this year? Mark Mylod could have submitted either “Connor’s Wedding” (Logan’s death) or the series finale “With Open Eyes” — he’s opted for the former (correct choice).
He also has his “Succession” colleagues to do battle with — particularly Andrij Parekh for “America Decides” (election night episode) and Lorene Scafaria (“Living+”), who all could make the cut. But as we saw last year when four directors made it, they lost out to “Squid Game” (not eligible this year).
It also has Peter Hoar from “The Last of Us” who helms the best episode of the series with stars Nick Offerman and Murray Bartlett. (Update: a previous version of this story listed Craig Mazin but he did not submit for directing, only for writing)
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: “Squid Game” (Netflix) — Hwang Dong-hyuk, “Red Light, Green Light”
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Succession” (HBO) — Mark Mylod, “Connor’s Wedding”
- “The Last of Us” (HBO) — Peter Hoar, “Long, Long Time”
- “The White Lotus” (HBO) — Mike White, “Arrivederci”
- “Succession” (HBO) — Andrij Parekh, “America Decides”
- “Succession” (HBO) — Lorene Scafaria, “Living+”
- “Better Call Saul” (AMC) — Peter Gould, “Saul Gone”
- “House of the Dragon” (HBO) — Miguel Sapochnik, “The Heirs of the Dragon”
Next in Line
- “Stranger Things” (Netflix) — The Duffer Brothers, “Chapter Nine: The Piggyback”
- “The Old Man” (FX) — Jon Watts, “I”
- “The Last of Us” (HBO) — Ali Abbasi, “When We Are in Need”
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Andor” (Disney+) — Benjamin Caron, “Rix Road”
- “Yellowjackets” (Showtime) — Liz Garbus, “Qui”
- “Yellowjackets” (Showtime) — Karyn Kusama, “Storytelling”
- “House of the Dragon” (HBO) — Greg Yaitanes, “The Black Queen”
- “The Crown” (Netflix) — Christian Schwochow, “Ipatiev House”
- “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video) — J.A. Bayona, “A Shadow of the Past”
- “1923” (Paramount+) — Ben Richardson, “1923”
- “Succession” (HBO) — Becky Martin, “Rehearsal”
- “Succession” (HBO) — Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini, “Tailgate Party”
- “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network) — Christina Alexandra Voros, “A Knife and a Coin”
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Henry Winkler in “Barry”
HBO
Weekly Commentary: Bill Hader, coming off his DGA win, could take another statuette home for helming the entire season of “Barry.” However, this race is more wide open than any of the others for series directing.
“The Bear” and “Shrinking” are the new kids that could get a large part of the TV Academy behind them while the final episodes of “Ted Lasso” and “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” could strike heartwarming chords.
“Abbott Elementary” will need a directing nom this time around to make a serious bid for the top category, especially since it missed out for its inaugural season.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) — MJ Delaney, “No Weddings and a Funeral”
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “The Bear” (FX) — Christopher Storer, “System”
- “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) — Declan Lowney, “So Long, Farewell”
- “Barry” (HBO) — Bill Hader, “wow”
- “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video) — Amy Sherman-Palladino, “Four Minutes”
- “Shrinking” (Apple TV+) — James Ponsoldt, “Coin Flip”
- “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — Randall Einhorn, “Development Day”
- “Wednesday” (Netflix) — Tim Burton, “Wednesday’s Child is Full of Woe”
Next in Line
- “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) — Matt Lipsey, “Sunflowers”
- “Atlanta” (FX) — Hiro Murai, “It Was All a Dream”
- “Poker Face” (Peacock) — Rian Johnson, “Dead Man’s Hand”
- “Shrinking” (Apple TV+) — Zach Braff, “Boop”
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) — John Hoffman, “Persons of Interest”
- “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) — Ken Whittingham, “Mom”
- “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) — Cherien Dabis, “The Tell”
- “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX) — Kyle Newacheck, “Sunrise, Sunset”
- “The Great” (Hulu) — Matthew Moore, “The Bullet or the Bear”
- “Somebody Somewhere” (HBO) — Jay Duplass, “To Ed”
- “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) — Jamie Babbit, “I Know Who Did It”
- “Reservation Dogs” (FX) — Sterlin Harjo, “I Still Believe”
- “Dead to Me” (Netflix) — Liz Feldman, “We’ve Reached the End”
- “Mo” (Netflix) — Solvan Naim, “Testimony”
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
Beef. (L to R) Steven Yeun as Danny, Ali Wong as Amy in episode 107 of Beef. Cr. Courtesy of Netflix © 2022
COURTESY OF NETFLIX
Weekly Commentary: There isn’t an obvious front-runner as we’ve seen in other years.
The emotional resonance of FX’s “Fleishman is in Trouble” could do wonders for its directing duo, Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris.
We might also see our first TV movie director recognized in quite some time with Eric Appel’s hilarious “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” from The Roku Channel.
And then there’s “Beef,” which was a critical favorite but its two leading stars — Steven Yeun and Ali Wong — might be able to bring the series in for the ride, and that also includes its director Lee Sung Jun.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
2022 category winner: “The White Lotus” (HBO) — Mike White, Series
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “Beef” (Netflix) — Lee Sung Jun, “Figure of Light”
- “Love & Death” (HBO) — Lesli Linka Glatter, “The Huntress”
- “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+) — Deborah Chow, “Part VI”
- “George & Tammy” (Showtime) — John Hillcoat, Series
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “A Small Light” (National Geographic) — Susanna Fogel, “Pilot”
- “Dead Ringers” (Prime Video) — Sean Durkin, “One”
- “The Patient” (Hulu) — Chris Long, “Intake”
- “White House Plumbers” (HBO) — David Mandel, Series
- “Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu) — Rachel Lee Goldenberg, “Pilot”
- “Five Days at Memorial” (Apple TV+) — John Ridley, “Day One”
- “Fire Island” (Hulu) — Andrew Ahn, Film
- “Prey” (Hulu) — Dan Trachtenberg, Film
- “The English” (Prime Video) — Hugo Blick, Series
- “Mrs. Davis” (Peacock) — Owen Harris, “Mother of Mercy: The Call of the Horse”
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.
