Disney’s remake of its 2016 animated film “Moana” is not catching a wave at the box office. With an industry estimated $18.2 million opening day from 3,872 locations, the live-action film is falling well below projections with an estimated domestic opening of $45 million.
For perspective, last year’s Disney remake bomb “Snow White” opened to a $16.2 million opening day and $42.7 million opening weekend from its March release slot, going on to gross just $82.7 million domestic and $205.6 million worldwide.
“Moana” should still be able to at least clear that low bar, both because of better audience reception and the lack of more direct competition for family audiences until “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” at the end of the month. “Moana” received an A- on CinemaScore, same as the 2024 “Lion King” prequel “Mufasa” and higher than the B+ for “Snow White.”
But with a production budget of at least $200 million and a marketing spend of at least $100 million more, “Moana” is still shaping up to be a theatrical bust that the franchise’s theme park and merch revenue stemming from the public’s continued love of the animated original will have to make up for. Nor is there much of a chance of an overseas bailout, as the remake has earned an opening day of just £775,000 between lack of interest in the film and the FIFA World Cup quarterfinals happening this weekend, which include England.
Also contributing to the low numbers is competition from Universal/Illumination’s “Minions & Monsters” and Disney’s own smash Pixar hit “Toy Story 5,” both of which are holding well this weekend.
“Minions & Monsters” is estimated to earn $21 million in its second weekend, a 43% drop from a franchise-low $37 million 3-day opening weekend. With an estimated domestic total of $108 million through Sunday, the seventh film in the “Despicable Me” franchise will fall well short of the heights of its predecessors but will still turn a theatrical profit against its $85 million budget.
“Toy Story 5,” which is on pace to reach the $1 billion global mark by next weekend, will cross the $400 million domestic mark on Sunday with an industry estimated $18.5 million fourth weekend.
Taking fourth on the charts is the other newcomer this weekend, Warner Bros./New Line’s “Evil Dead Burn” with a $6.5 million opening day and an industry estimated $14.5 million opening weekend from 3,004 locations. While little more than half of the $24.5 million opening that predecessor “Evil Dead Rise” earned in 2023, it should still be enough to make this film modestly profitable against its low $20 million budget. The film has earned Rotten Tomatoes scores of 72% critics and 82% audience to go with a B on CinemaScore.
