Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Feb 9, 2023
Weekly Commentary: From the Feb. 8 Variety print issue:
“As to best picture, five films are seriously vying for the prize — “Banshees,” “Everything Everywhere,” “The Fabelmans,” “Tár” and “Top Gun: Maverick.” “Banshees” has a great shot mainly because the award is decided by a ranked-voting system (aka the preferential ballot). In all other categories, the popular vote determines the winner.
The preferential system favors not the movies that are most loved (that is, with the most passionate admirers) but the ones that are most liked (having the greatest general appeal). While a first-place “most loved” vote is ideal — a contender needs 50% of the vote plus one to secure a win — it’s the second-and third-place “most liked” picks that push a title across the finish line. That explains upsets like “Green Book” (2018) over “Roma” and the ushering through of underdogs such as “Parasite” (2019) over “1917.”. If “Everything Everywhere’s” flying dildos are a bridge too far for voters, or “Maverick” is too lowbrow, an Irish tale of two buddies who have a falling out could be just what the Oscar doctor ordered.”
Coming up this week on the circuit: MUAHS Awards ceremony (Feb. 11), the Oscars nominee luncheon (Feb. 13), the Writers Guild of America Awards final voting opens (Feb. 13), and the DGA, PGA and Costume Designers Guild final voting will close (Feb. 17).
Updated winner predictions are below.
To see the ranked predictions for each category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
